Boris News – No Confidence Vote

  • As the dust starts to settle on the decision by the Met police to issue the PM with a fixed penalty notice, Politics.co.uk has now undertaken a full update on the position of Conservative MPs.
  • The attached analysis shows there is a clear and pronounced split within the parliamentary Conservative party.
  • There are currently 124 Conservative MPs who, at the very least, are showing signs of discomfort with the PM.  This is up 7 from the position two weeks ago.  20 of these 124 MPs have already publicly called for the PM to go, with a further 44 considered to be particularly hostile. 
  • Meanwhile, 152 Conservative MPs are regarded as supportive of the PM (with 98 in our active ‘publicly backing’ category).
  • On the basis of the below analysis, there are clearly already enough MPs hostile to the prime minister to initiate a vote of no conference.
  • However, the fate of the PM would appear to lie with the 83 Conservative MPs who are currently ‘lying low’.  These are the MPs who have given no real public indicator as to their feelings on the PM’s future.     
  • In a secret ‘no confidence’ ballot, it is likely that some of the MPs who are listed as supportive (notably those serving in the government) would turn against the PM.  Equally though, it is not guaranteed that all those that are listed as showing ‘signs of concern’ would vote again him.   Should these two forces balance out, approximately two thirds of the 83 MPs classified as ‘currently lying low’ would need to vote against Mr Johnson for him to lose a confidence vote.

Letters of ‘no confidence’ are required from 54 Conservative MPs in order initiate a formal leadership contest.   In theory, 180 MPs from the total of 359 that currently have the Conservative whip would then need to vote against the prime minister for him to be removed from office.

Block 1 – Openly called for the PM to go

Aldous, Peter [Openly called for the PM to go]
Suffolk MP. Confirmed he has sent in a letter calling for a leadership contest, tweeting that it was clear that Boris Johnson had ‘no intention’ of resigning voluntarily.

Baker, Steve [Openly called for the PM to go]
Serial rebel and Brexiter who was heavily involved in the campaign to oust Theresa May.  Backed Boris in 2019, but never entered the Johnson government.  Was critical of the PM over Covid lockdowns.   He would comfortably lose his Wycombe seat to Labour in an election based on anything like the current opinion polls.  Previously described the prime minister’s current position as one of ‘checkmate. In the Commons debate on Partygate on 21st April he declared, “The prime minister now should be long gone. The prime minister should just know the gig’s up”.

Bell, Aaron [Openly called for the PM to go]
Red Wall MP from Newcastle under Lyme who criticized the prime minister in the Commons, and who has confirmed he has submitted a letter of no confidence.  He commented: “As someone who backed Brexit and backed Boris Johnson for the leadership in 2019, I am profoundly disappointed that it has come to this.”

Bowie, Andrew [Openly called for the PM to go]
Scottish MP for West Aberdeen and Kincardine who was once PPS to Theresa May.  Backed Boris Johnson in the eventual 2019 leadership election and was a Conservative party vice chair until 2021. However, he has fallen in with the Scottish conservatives in Holyrood (27 of the 31 Conservative MSPs) who have come out against Boris Johnson, telling the BBC in January: “I think the prime minister should be considering his position”. His marginal Aberdeen West seat would be comfortably lost to the SNP on the basis of current polling.  It is not clear if he has yet formally submitted a letter.

Bridgen, Andrew [Openly called for the PM to go]
Outspoken Brexiteer from North West Leicestershire.  Previously put in a letter of no confidence in Theresa May, and has confirmed to have done so already on Boris Johnson.  Has claimed there is now a ‘moral vacuum’ at the heart of government. Although has said, the midst of the Ukraine war was not the time to remove the PM, we assume he will still be hostile in due course.

Davis, David [Openly called for the PM to go]
Veteran Conservative MP and former cabinet minister.  Called on Boris Johnson to “in the name of God, go”, in the House of Commons in January. It is not clear if he has formally submitted a letter.

Ellwood, Tobias [Openly called for the PM to go]
Former defence minister and current chair of the defence select committee who is not shy to criticize the government, recently attacking rushed policy announcements from No 10.  Described the row over parties as “horrible to defend”, and has confirmed that he has sent a letter to the 1922 committee.  Reaffirmed his belief that the PM should go after Boris was fined by the police. In significant danger of losing his once safe Bournemouth East seat to Labour in any general election that reflected the current opinion polls.

Gale, Sir Roger  [Openly called for the PM to go]
Veteran MP representing the towns of Herne Bay and Margate on the Kent coast.  He is a particularly long-standing critic of Boris Johnson. Has suggested the PM has misled the House of Commons. Although he has said the war in Ukraine means it is not the time to remove the PM, he was previously amongst the first to submit a letter of no confidence in the prime minister, and told BBC Radio 4, that the PM is a “dead man walking”.

Gibb, Nick [Openly called for the PM to go]
Former long standing junior education minister from Bognor Regis. He was removed from the government by Boris Johnson in 2021. Confirmed he had sent a letter to the 1922 committee. He had previously written in the Telegraph that: “We need to face up to hard truths. To restore trust, we need to change the prime minister”.

Harper, Mark [Openly called for the PM to go]
Former government chief whip, and one time leadership opponent to Boris Johnson in 2019.  He retains political ambitions. Has been consistently very critical of the Johnson government for the levels of its Covid restrictions. Speaking in the Commons over the Gray report he said, “Many have questioned, including some of my constituents, the prime minister’s honesty and integrity and fitness to hold that office”. After the PM was issued with a police fine, he told the Commons that Boris Johnson is “no longer worthy of the great office that he holds.” He then issued a Tweet containing the text of his letter of no confidence, forwarded to 1922 committee chair Sir Graham Brady MP.

Hudson, Neil  [Openly called for the PM to go]
Equine vet who was elected in 2019 for the safe seat of Penrith and the Border. Has been publicly critical in relation to the partygate affair saying he was “appalled” at the reports of the May gatherings in Downing Street.  He has also commented that he will not defend the indefensible and that there should be ‘serious consequences’ if the rules have been broken.   Following the issuing of a police fine, Hudson is quoted as saying, “I will therefore be looking to the prime minister to show the statesmanship he has been showing with Ukraine, and outline a timetable and process for an orderly transition to a leadership election as soon as the international situation permits.”

Loughton, Tim [Openly called for the PM to go]
Former junior minister who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election. However, he now claims to be “very angry” and has submitted a letter to the 1922 committee. Has described his thinking as not relating to how many sausage rolls or glasses of Prosecco the prime minister had, but “the way that he has handled the mounting revelations in the last few weeks”. Would comfortably lose his increasingly more marginal East Worthing and Shoreham seat to Labour in a general election held on the basis of current opinion polls.

Mangnall, Anthony [Openly called for the PM to go]
Devon MP and former researcher to William Hague who confirmed that he had sent a letter to the 1922 committee soon after the Gray report was published.  Argues that the PM’s “actions and mistruths” are overshadowing the extraordinary work of so many excellent ministers and colleagues”.

Mills, Nigel [Openly called for the PM to go]
Brexiteer who represents Amber Valley in Derbyshire.  He backed Boris in the 2019 leadership contest, but has been quoted as saying that he didn’t think anyone involved with the parties can stay in any position where they’re setting Covid policy’. Following the news that the prime minister and chancellor had received fines, Mills became the first fresh Conservative MP to publicly claim Johnson’s leadership should not survive. He told BBC Radio Derby that: “In all conscience I don’t think a prime minister can survive or should survive breaking the rules he put in place”, adding, “We have to have higher standards than that of people at the top. He has been fined, I don’t think his position is tenable”.

Mitchell, Andrew [Openly called for the PM to go]
Former cabinet minister who once resigned over his own ‘plebgate’ affair in Downing Street. Told the prime minister in the House of Commons chamber that he no longer enjoys his support. He has not confirmed whether he yet sent a letter.

Nokes, Caroline [Openly called for the PM to go]
Remainer from Hampshire who temporarily lost the Conservative whip back in 2019 over Brexit. She is chair of the women and equalities select committee. She also recently made allegations against the prime minister’s father. Has confirmed that she has submitted a letter to the 1922 committee, arguing that it is up to the party to decide whether Boris Johnson goes now or at a general election in three years time.

Ross, Douglas [Openly called for the PM to go]
Leader of the Scottish Conservatives who publicly called for Johnson to resign on the back of the PM admitting that he attended the Downing Street gathering in May 2020. Claimed the PM’s position is “no longer tenable”, and confirmed that he has sent a letter of no confidence. Following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Mr Ross publicly retracted his call for Boris Johnson to resign. It does though remain to be seen, what approach Mr Ross will choose to take next. Given his previous public statements, we continue to regard him as hostile in the medium term.

Streeter, Gary [Openly called for the PM to go]
Veteran MP from Devon. Evangelical Christian who sits on the left of the Conservative party. Has written a letter to the 1922 committee saying he couldn’t “reconcile” the pain and sacrifice of the vast majority of the British public during lockdown with the attitude and activities of those working in Downing Street.

Whittaker, Craig [Openly called for the PM to go]
Conservative MP for Calder Valley, elected in 2010, but would comfortably lose his seat if a general election was held on the back of current opinion poll numbers. Initially described the partygate allegations as ‘horrendous’ but issued a statement to say that Mr Johnson retained his support. However the day after the police issued fines to both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, he told a Facebook “Q and A” that he thought the pair should both do the ‘right thing’ and resign. On 20th April, he told Sky News that, “I want the Prime Minister to take responsibility for his actions”. He said he has not as yet written a letter of no confidence to the 1922 committee as he thought a vote would distract the government from its “day-to-day” business.

Wragg, William [Openly called for the PM to go]
Chair of the Commons public administration select committee and an MP from the north west of England. Has complained about the tactics used by government whips. Would lose his Hazel Grove seat to the Lib Dems in any election based on current opinion poll numbers. He has confirmed that he has submitted a letter of no confidence in the PM.

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Block 2 – Considered Hostile

Baker, Duncan [Considered hostile]
Former UKIP member elected for North Norfolk in 2019. Echoed Diane Abbott’s question in the House of Commons when asking Johnson about the Gray report. Has refused to comment on whether he has sent a letter to the 1922 committee or not, but has said of the PM in the Eastern Daily Press, that: “There are a great number of questions to answer, and while they hang over us, his tenure is questionable”. In April, Mr Baker suggested that he would have potentially broken with Tory whips and supported an inquiry into whether the PM lied to Parliament. Although not yet calling for the PM to go, Mr Baker is quoted in the North Norfolk News as saying, “On the basis of one fixed-penalty notice, with what is going on around the world and in our country, in this context I don’t believe that this is a resigning matter. However I will always look at what is coming forward as this investigation and the other investigations continue to be published”. He later suggested to the BBC Radio 4 ‘PM’ programme that if the PM received multiple fines (which he seemed to confirm, means more than one), he might adopt a different approach.

Baldwin, Harriet [Considered hostile]
The MP for West Worcestershire. A former minister who was sacked by Boris Johnson as soon as he became PM in 2019. Supported Jeremy Hunt rather than Johnson in the 2019 leadership election. After the police fine was issued to the PM commented that she would not be submitting a letter of no confidence with the government showing strong leadership over Ukraine. However, she has previously told Bloomberg, that if the official report finds that the prime minister has lied to parliament, then that is a “red line” for her.

Bottomley, Sir Peter [Considered hostile]
Longest serving MP, who has historfically been very independently minded. Has reportedly refused to offer the prime minister his full support. Has sat on the outside left of the Conservative party for most of his time in parliament.  Backed Jeremy Hunt rather than Boris Johnson in the 2019 contest. Appeared unhappy over the Owen Patterson affair back in November 2019.

Bradley, Karen [Considered hostile]
Cabinet minister under Theresa May, but dismissed by Boris Johnson as soon as he became PM in 2019. Backed Michael Gove rather than Boris Johnson in the 2019 contest.  According to a report in the Sun newspaper in December, Bradley was said to be involved in a ‘plot’ with other MPs hostile to Johnson. Following the issuing of fixed penalty notices to the PM and Chancellor she told ‘Staffordshire Live’ that she would herslef have resigned if she had broken the rules that she had passed. She added, “I will spend the next few days consulting my constituents and will decide on what action to take after listening to them”. Asked previously if she would write a letter calling for a no confidence vote in the prime minister, she provided a lukewarm response to Times Radio, saying: “Let’s wait and see what happens”. However she did not shy away from stressing that Johnson ought to step down of his own accord, saying: “But I do wish to make it clear that if I had been a minister found to have broken the laws that I passed, I would be tendering my resignation now.”

Brine, Steve [Considered hostile]
Remainer from whom Johnson removed the Conservative whip back in 2019. Backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership content. Would easily lose his Winchester seat to the Liberal Democrats based on current polling.  Has described the Sue Gray findings as an ’embarrassment’. Speaking to the Hampshire Chronicle, Brine was reported as saying: “I never discuss private correspondence but I have always thought self-awareness is a much under-valued quality in a leader and will be making that point this week”.

Buckland, Robert [Considered hostile]
Supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 contest, and sat as a cabinet minister between 2019 and 2021. He has since been dismissed by Boris. Prior to becoming an MP, he served as a judge sitting on the Midlands circuit. He is positioned on the left of the Conservative party. Would comfortably lose his Swindon South seat to Labour based on current opinion polling. Made a veiled attack on Johnson in the Commons after the Gray report, saying: “Will he give me and the House this undertaking today, that in co-operating with the Metropolitan Police inquiry, he will show the appropriate tone and approach that I think the British public demand of him, and that as a person of serious purpose, who is up to the level of events, that is what they expect from you now, and that is what I will be expecting him to do?”. In April 2022, and with the possibility of more fines to come, he was quoted in the Swindon Advertiser as saying, “The police investigation is still ongoing so the full extent of the consequences is still to be determined”.

Clarke, Greg [Considered hostile]
Remainer and former cabinet minister under David Cameron and Theresa May. He is the current chair of the science and technology select committee. Left the cabinet immediately in 2019, when Boris Johnson became PM.   Subsequently had the Conservative whip removed by Boris over Brexit. His Tunbridge Wells seat is not totally out of the reach of the Lib Dems. As yet, does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future, but hard to envisage him supporting Boris Johnson in a leadership ballot. In April, he reiterated that he wished to wait to read the full report, commenting, “At that point I will set out to constituents the conclusions I have reached comprehensively.”

Clifton-Brown, Geoffrey [Considered hostile]
Tory grandee who is treasurer of the 1922 committee. Regarded as something of a long standing critic of Boris. Was quoted in December as saying that unless the PM’s performance improved, “some members of the party will be thinking we have got to have a change”.  Media reports have also suggested there are links between the so called ‘pork pie’ plot of Tory MPs elected in 2019 and a shooting event held by the APPG on Shooting and Conservation, itself chaired by Sir Geoffrey. In further signs that he may not be a backer of the PM, he publicly reacted to the police fine saying that the question that MPs have to “wrestle with” is whether replacing the Prime Minister in the middle of a war in Ukraine and the biggest cost of living squeeze in a generation is the right action at this time.

Colburn, Elliot [Considered hostile]
Young MP from south west London who was elected in 2019.  He would comfortably lose his Carshalton and Wallington seat to the Lib Dems in any election that reflected the current opinion polls. The Guardian reported that his patience has snapped with the PM, and that he had told a constituent, that “If I were the PM, I’d be considering my position”.

Crabb, Stephen [Considered hostile]
Welsh MP and former cabinet minister on the left of the party. He is chair of the Welsh affairs select committee. Backed Sajid Javid in 2019. He faces an uncertain future after constituency boundary changes have in effect abolished his old seat. According to Wales Online, he is reported as having written to a constituent, saying of the PM: “While he may not have attended some of the gatherings being reported, he does have a special responsibility in setting the culture and standards at the heart of government. He was right to apologise this week, but this may not be a sufficient response given the seriousness of these matters.” He has also attacked the PM’s comments in relation to Jimmy Saville describing them as “ill-judged and not befitting of a prime minister.”

Davison, Dehenna [Considered hostile]
Young Conservative MP from Durham with a very large social media following.  She gained Bishop Auckland by a big majority for the Conservatives in 2019, but would now lose her seat to Labour if a future general election reflected current opinion polling.  Reported as saying she was “incredibly angry” about the Downing Street parties and the prime minister’s response. She has been named in the media as a potential ring leader in the so called ‘pork pie plot’ of MPs from the 2019 intake, who are believed to be hostile to Boris remaining in No.10.

Doyle-Price, Jackie [Considered hostile]
Essex MP for Thurrock. Former junior minister, who left the government as soon as Boris Johnson entered Downing Street.  Regularly reported in the media as being hostile to the PM. Hard to imagine her supporting Boris in any leadership election.

Drummond, Flick [Considered hostile]
Former Ofsted inspector. Was previously defeated in Portsmouth, but later returned for the safer Hampshire seat of Meon Valley in 2019.  Remainer who is now vice chair of the Conservative European Forum.  She sits on the body with other figures whom are deemed hostile to the PM, such as Stephen Hammond and the former MP Dominic Grieve. She has said she will wait to see the results of the inquiry and police investigations before commenting further, but pointedly told the Hampshire Chronicle that: “I am very disappointed to hear the prime minister admit he went to an event with drinks in the garden at Downing Street during the first lockdown”.

Dunne, Philip [Considered hostile]
Former defence minister under David Cameron and Theresa May who is the MP for Ludlow in Shropshire.  He was instrumental in managing Jeremy Hunt’s campaign for the Conservative party leadership against Boris Johnson back in 2019.   Accepts the Gray report highlights a failure of leadership in No.10, but has said for now that he will not call on Johnson to resign while there is a police investigation ongoing.

Fell, Simon [Considered hostile]
Red Wall MP for Barrow and Furness in Cumbria. Would comfortably lose his seat to Labour based on current opinion poll levels. Was initially quiet on partygate but has recently said that it was unacceptable that those making the rules were “not following them”.  Has been linked in the media to the ‘pork pie’ plotters – a group of MPs elected in 2019 who are said to be hostile to Johnson. In public statements has suggested that a “belated apology is thin gruel to his constituents”. According to his local ‘Mail’ paper, he has said that until the full report or the findings of the Met investigation are completed, it is “hard to draw a further conclusion” saying that “we need facts to make decisions and act”. Following the war in Ukraine, commented that this was not the right time to remove the PM, and argued that the birthday cake event was not a party. However he also reiterated his anger at broad events. His position needs to be watched closely if more fines are issued.

Garnier, Mark [Considered hostile]
Backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. Writing in a weekly column, described the Gray Report as “not good reading” but without seeing the full report added that, “so, far from being able to pass judgement on what has been going on, we are no further than we were before the interim update was published”. However, more tellingly he was prepared to tell BBC Midlands Live that: “we are on a bit of a glide slope to Johnson’s departure”. After the police issued a fine to the PM, he expressed concern that further fines would follow. He was quoted as saying ,”I didn’t support Boris Johnson in the leadership elections – I was worried about character flaws and I haven’t been disappointed”.

Ghani, Nusrat [Considered hostile]
Former transport minister who was sacked from the government in 2020. Suggesting her Islamic faith was an issue for her dismissal, she then became embroiled in a public dispute with the former chief whip over the related circumstances. She supported Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. The Daily Mail has suggested that Ghani is ‘known’ to have already submitted a letter of no confidence.

Graham, Richard [Considered hostile]
The MP for Gloucester, who would narrowly lose his seat if a general election reflected current opinion poll levels.  He backed Jeremy Hunt rather than Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. Has issued a statement in which he described the Downing Street gatherings as ‘illegal’, saying: “I want every prime minister to do his or her best for our country: and in that sense, they all, regardless of which political party they come from, have my support, but not at any price or under all circumstances”. Previously said he would await the findings of the Gray report, adding ominously: “There are steps that every MP can take to bring about change. I do not rule out any of them in that situation.”

Green, Chris  [Considered hostile]
Conservative MP for Bolton West who would narrowly lose his seat if a general election reflected the current opinion poll position.  Brexiteer who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest. Has been publicly quiet of late, but in December after the initial partygate claims, when asked if he still had confidence in the PM, he was reportedly silent for a period on BBC Radio Manchester before saying: “I think the silence does speak volumes”. This was before the further January party allegations emerged. He previously submitted a letter of no confidence in Theresa May.

Hammond, Stephen [Considered hostile]
Conservative MP for Wimbledon in south west London with an ultra slim majority. Sits on the left of the party and was a supporter of Matt Hancock in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. Staunch remainer who had the Conservative whip removed by Boris Johnson in 2019. According to a report in the Sun newspaper in December, Hammond was said to be involved in a ‘plot’ with other MPs hostile to Johnson. Very hard to imagine him supporting Boris Johnson in any confidence vote. Has suggested that a defeat in the Wakefield by-election may be one moment that piles extra pressure on the PM.

Higginbotham, Antony [Considered hostile]
Red Wall MP for Burnley. Would comfortably lose his seat to Labour in any general election that reflects the current opinion polls. Has been linked to the ‘pork pie’ plot of Conservative MPs elected in 2019, having written on Facebook, that: “I am as angry and disappointed as you are”.

Hoare, Simon [Considered hostile]
Dorset MP, and member of the Tory Reform Group on the left of the Conservative party.  Supported Sajid Javid in the 2019 Conservative leadership election. Has described how he has had over 1,400 emails around partygate. Told the Bournemouth Echo that: “I am very concerned about what it’s doing to the status of parliament and to the status of government not just at home but abroad as well”. Continuing he said: “These are very serious things and I think there’s a hell of a lot of damage that is going on and I’m very depressed and very worried about it all”. Referring to submitting a letter of no confidence, he said: “It’s not an easy thing to do, but it’s something that I haven’t ruled out”. He has suggested that the war in Ukraine does not stop the PM being changed, pointing to how Mrs Thatcher was forced out when the UK had ‘boots on the ground in Kuwait’.

Howell, John [Considered hostile]
Succeeded Boris Johnson as the MP for Henley, but has been critical of Johnson in the past. Remainer, and one time tax inspector, who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 conservative leadership election. Has publicly said he won’t be commenting during the ongoing police investigation. However in January he told the Henley Standard this was a ‘difficult issue’, before going on to ‘reiterate’ how he didn’t vote for Johnson to be prime minister in the Tory leadership vote in 2019.  It is therefore hard to imagine him voting for Johnson in any future such contest.

Hunt, Jeremy [Considered hostile]
Former foreign secretary who was defeated by Johnson in the 2019 Conservative leadership election. He is chair of the commons health select committee. He has, at times, been critical of the government through the covid crisis. Publicly has said that he hopes that there is not a leadership election, but has given no confirmation that he would support the PM if there was one. Instead he commented in January, that his own leadership ambitions have not completely vanished.

Hunt, Tom [Considered hostile]
MP for Ispwich, first elected in 2019. Former researcher to Oliver Dowden. Has been highly critical of the Downing Street event that occurred the night before Prince Philip’s funeral saying it filled him “with disgust”. Has reportedly had an in-person meeting with the PM over the matter. According to the Guardian he has also criticised “cack-handed” backers of the prime minister, suggesting that they should disable their social media platforms and cease carrying out media interviews.  Has appeared more supportive of the PM since the war in Ukraine, but has also said a line cannot be drawn under the current saga till the full Gray report is published.  Would comfortably lose his seat to Labour in an election that reflected current opinion polling levels.

Jones, Andrew [Considered hostile]
Was a junior minister under Theresa May, but lost his job when Boris Johnson became prime minister. Remainer who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership election. His Harrogate constituency would see a knife edge battle with the Lib Dems at current opinion poll levels. Echoed Diane Abbott’s hostile question in the House of Commons when asking the prime minister about the Gray report. Has said that correspondence with the 1922 is ‘confidential’, but that ‘nobody should doubt’ his unhappiness.

Kearns, Alicia [Considered hostile]
First elected for Rutland and Melton in 2019. Ambitious MP who has been reported in the media as being the ring leader behind the so called ‘pork pie plot’ (named in relation to her constituency) of MPs elected in 2019 who are hostile to the PM. Has been quoted in her local paper, the Melton Times, as saying she feels “angry” at the most recent allegations.

Knight, Julian [Considered hostile]
He is the chair of the culture select committee, and author of the book, ‘Politics for dummies’.  After the issuing of the fixed penalty notices, he did though issue a statement to say, ‘Given the crucial point in Europe’s history right now, it is not the right time to change the leadership of the country’. However he also taken a critical line on partygate, previously telling Times Radio: “What I would say is that it would be charitable to say that partygate, if you like, is due to acts of extreme stupidity on behalf of those at Number 10”. Continuing he said: “I’m very open minded about the future direction of the Conservative party, that’s all I want to say on the issue”. Has been further quoted in the Birmingham Mail as saying that, “everyone” believes prime minister Boris Johnson could be forced to quit. Has been very critical of the government in the last month on their plans to sell off Channel 4.

Loder, Chris [Considered hostile]
Former train guard who worked his way up in the railway industry. Elected in 2019 for West Dorset. Reported to be part of the so called ‘pork pie’ plot of MPs elected in 2019 who are considered hostile to the PM. Wrote in his local paper, the Bridport and Lyme Regis News, that he was “deeply embarrassed and humiliated” by the revelations and that he was not convinced that the “evolving narrative” from the prime minister is acceptable.  Ominous in this context – his hobbies include bell ringing…..

Logan, Mark [Considered hostile]
Red Wall MP for Bolton North East with a majority of just 378 votes.  Abstained on the vote to reform lobbying laws. In relation to the current difficulties, on Twitter he has said: “Let’s not beat about the bush. I, my constituents, this country, expect more”. Moving through the social media world, on Facebook he then commented, that the “prime minister sets the culture and example for the rest of the country”. In the media he been linked to the ‘pork pie’ plot of Conservative MPs elected in 2019.

May, Theresa [Considered hostile]
Former prime minister.  Following the publication of the Gray Report, she was critical of Johnson in the Commons. You only have to watch this, and indeed any other interactions between the pair, to conclude that there is not much love lost here.  It would seem highly unlikely that she would support the PM in a no confidence vote.

Merriman, Huw [Considered hostile]
Remainer from Bexhill on the Sussex coast, and yet another select committee chair (this time of transport), who seems to have issues with the PM. During the Brexit debate, he previously argued for a second referendum.  He backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. This month he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme that he was “deeply troubled” by what was going on and that if a prime minister “doesn’t shape up”, then “they have to ship out”.

Mullan, Kieran [Considered hostile]
Former police special constable. Elected in 2019, but would comfortably lose his Crewe and Nantwich seat to Labour if an election was held on the back of current polling. Has been linked in the media with the so called ‘pork pie’ plot of MPs elected in 2019, and his public comments have not been particularly supportive of the PM. Writing in his local newspaper column, he said: “The fact that I haven’t said he should resign does not mean that I accept or condone what has gone on, or that I agree that he should carry on.  It means I want to take a decision with the full facts”.

Poulter, Daniel [Considered hostile]
Suffolk MP and psychiatrist.  He has been quoted in the Guardian as saying, that although he was pleased with the PM’s apology it was not much consolation to “those of us” who cared for patients on the frontline of the NHS. He has said that, should the PM have been found to have actively misled parliament, or if he faces criminal sanctions, then his position would be untenable. He has also argued that an independent person should consider the Gray report having been quoted in the East Anglian Daily Times saying that, “We are in the extremely unusual situation where the Prime minister is both under investigation and the arbitrator of that same investigation”.

Richardson, Angela [Considered hostile]
Would comfortably lose her Guildford seat to the Lib Dems based on the current levels of Conservative polling.  The first resignation from the government’s so called ‘payroll vote’ because of ‘partygate’.  Quitting her position as PPS to Michael Gove, she cited her ‘deep disappointment’ in Boris Johnson.  In a statement to her constituents after the Gray report was published she commented that: “It also seems as though there are further questions to which we do not yet have the answer, because of the Metropolitan Police investigation”. In April, confirmed on Twitter that, she would have rebelled against any whip and supported a Labour motion calling for a Commons committee to investigate the PM.

Sambrook, Gary [Considered hostile]
Elected in 2019 for Birmingham Northfield with a slim majority of 1,640. Sambrook was initially identified as being part of the pork pie plot of MPs elected in 2019 that were hostile to the PM. He was also heavily rumoured to have put in a letter to the 1922 committee, having been quoted in the Daily Mail as saying: “The prime minister has admitted attending one of the gatherings but disputed its status as a party, and has apologised. We all will come to our own conclusions”. More recently though, Sambrook has suggested that he has listened to the PM and his “promises” on change and that he supports him in “delivering’ for his constituents”. In what is a secret letter writing process, we suspect that only Sambrook (and Graham Brady) actually knows what is occurring here.

Smith, Julian [Considered hostile]
North Yorkshire MP and former government chief whip under Theresa May. He was later sacked by Boris Johnson as Northern Ireland secretary after just six months in the job. Located on the Tory left, and has been described by the Financial Times as being “opposed” to both the “tone and style” of the Johnson government. He was directly critical of the PM on Twitter about the “smear” made against Sir Keir Starmer in relation to Jimmy Savile.

Spencer, Ben [Considered hostile]
A further psychiatrist who appears hostile to the PM. Younger MP elected in 2019 for a safe seat in Surrey.  He is a member of the Tory Reform Group on the moderate wing of the party. In relation to partygate he has issued a pretty strong statement on Facebook, in which he said: “The prime minister has set out his explanation, which is that he believed at the time it was a work event. I struggle with this … Clearly if it is found that the prime minister has intentionally misled parliament or knowingly broke the law his position would be untenable”.

Stevenson, John [Considered hostile]
Supported Michael Gove in the 2019 leadership election.  Would lose his Carlisle seat to Labour in a general election based on the current levels of opinion polls.  Previously said in the media that he would wait for the outcome of the Gray report, detailing that he was angered by the partygate reports. He publicly commented in January that there was no appetite among Tories to change leader. However his attittude appears to have hardened in recent times. Ahead of a Commons debate, he was reported on Cumbria Crack as saying he supported the idea that a Commons Committee should consider whether the PM has misled parliament. Expressing how he was ‘very disappointed’ in what had happened in No.10, he said, “I believe we should wait for the full Sue Gray report, and once it has concluded, the Prime Minister should then submit to a confidence vote of Conservative MPs”.

Stride, Mel [Considered hostile]
Former leader of the House of Commons who having finally reached the Cabinet under Theresa May, was sacked after just two months in the job when Boris Johnson became prime minister.  Continuing the trend in this list- that if you are a Conservative chair of a select committee – then you appear to have notable issues with Mr Johnson, Mr Stride is currently the chair of the treasury committee.   He was a Remainer who backed Michael Gove in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  The Sunday Telegraph reported in January 2022 that a meeting of up to 40 Conservative MPs (including Mr Gove himself) took place in a pub close to Mr Stride’s London house.

Sturdy, Julian [Considered hostile]
Supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election. Straight talking Yorkshireman who has said claims that the Downing Street garden party was a work related event won’t wash with the public.  Has told the Yorkshire Post that the unredacted Sue Gray report “needs to be published as soon as possible so our actions in response can be fully informed”. After the PM was referred to the Commons priveleges committee, he tweeted to suggest that there was ‘sufficient doubt’ over claims made by the PM at the dispatch box. Referring to the Nolan principles of public life, he wrote, ‘No one is above this and even the PM must be held accountable for his actions’. Referring to his inbox he wrote, ‘I dismiss allegations that the public want to move on from ‘partygate’ saying his constituents ‘want answers and they deserve them’.

Syms, Robert [Considered hostile]
Long standing MP from Dorset.  Covid lockdown sceptic who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election. However in an ominous statement, he said ,“I am considering whether or not I ought to put in a letter. I’ve had emails from what I would call Christian, decent, honest, honourable types of Tory voters, who say they feel embarrassed about voting Conservative with Boris Johnson’.

Thomas, Derek [Considered hostile]
Brexiter who supported Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership contest.  Under current opinion polling levels would lose his St Ives seat to the Liberal Democrats. Before the Gray report was published commented on Facebook, that, “If the inquiry or the Metropolitan police find that the alleged activities were illegal and that the PM knew this, or was involved, then I think he should consider his position.” He reiterated this position in April after the PM was fined, saying he was now waiting for the full publication of the Gray report. Referencing his upbringing he told Cornwall Live about the importance of the theme of being ‘beyond reproach’….

Trott, Laura [Considered hostile]
Former aide to David Cameron.  Elected in 2019 for the safe seat of Sevenoaks in Kent.  Seen as an ambitious MP, but one who has yet to be promoted. This trend may well continue if Johnson remains PM. Critical of Boris in the past, Trott made unwelcome comments during the 2019 conservative leadership campaign, suggesting that a Johnson victory might lead to an early General election and a Corbyn win. She has been quoted in her local Sevenoaks Chronicle after the Gray Report as saying, “The conclusions in the update are extremely serious, and while we still don’t have all the details, the update made some important recommendations”. She added,”I am very clear that we need transparency on what exactly happened, and that is why the Sue Gray report must be published in full once the police inquiry is complete. MPs and the public have the right to see the full findings.”

Tugendhat, Tom [Considered hostile]
Foreign affairs select committee chair and the MP for Tonbridge in Kent.   Remainer, whose uncle was a European Commissioner.   Described by the Independent newspaper as a fierce critic of the PM, someone with whom he is thought to have a prickly relationship. Backed Michel Gove in 2019.   He is politically very ambitious.  The fact that he recently became the first MP to openly declare himself as a candidate to replace Mr Johnston (however unlikely that is in Mr Tugendhat’s case), would further suggest that the PM is unlikely to be counting on his support.

Walker, Charles [Considered hostile]
Tory Grandee, and independently minded MP for the very safe seat of Broxbourne in Hertfordshire, who is standing down at the next election. He previously stuck his neck out to thwart a 2015 plot to remove Commons speaker, John Bercow. He has already suggested that if Boris resigned, it would show great courage, telling Channel 4, “I would applaud him for doing that”.  He has been quoted in the Daily Mail as saying the PM has 6 months to restore trust in the government. After the police issued their fine, he suggested on Radio 4’s World at One that he would likely abstain rather than vote against any motion calling for the standards committee to investigate the PM. He suggested that a lack of alternative ‘big beasts’ in politics at the moment, was for now, helping Boris Johnson to continue in post.

Wright, Jeremy [Considered hostile]
Former Attorney General, who backed Sajid Javid in the 2019 leadership election.  In a statement published on his website, he says “I share the widespread disappointment in the way the prime minister has handled this matter. This is therefore a very serious situation and questions about the prime minister’s ability to stay in office are legitimate’. He was quoted in the Guardian as suggesting the PM should face “resignation or removal from office” if he was found to have knowingly attended rule-breaking parties.

__________________________________________________

Block 3 – Signs of concern for the PM

Afolami, Bim [Signs of concern for the PM]
Backed Johnson in the 2019 leadership election, seen as being on the left of the Conservative party.  If an election was held based on current opinion poll levels, he would lose his Hitchin and Harpenden seat to the Lib Dems.  Reacted to Gray report in a non-committal way by saying that he would “carefully study” what emerged.   More tellingly he wrote on the Conservative home website in November, that there was a nagging sense in the public that we should be better governed.  Continuing he wrote, “And since the prime minister is at the apex of the system, he will carry most of the can…the real complaint from the public is that they don’t think that MPs and the government are doing their jobs effectively enough”….  “Dare I say it, I think they are right”. Has has though pointed to the war in Ukraine as being one reason why this is though not the right time to be talking about the future of the PM.

Anderson, Lee [Signs of Concern for the PM]
Red Wall MP from Nottinghamshire. Won Ashfield in 2019 but who would comfortably lose the seat in an election held on the basis of today’s opinion polling. Former miner and Labour councillor, who only joined the Conservatives in 2018. Shares a Commons office with Alicia Kearns, the MP for Rutland, who the media suggest is the ring leader of the so called ‘pork pie plot’ of MPs elected in 2019. Anderson recently did an interview with Andrew Neill suggesting that the Conservatives could lose some 5 million red wall voters. Has recently written on Facebook that: “Personally, I would not back anyone who has knowingly done wrong.” He has also said that he will submit a letter of no-confidence if Boris “lost the trust of the nation”. After the PM was initially issued with a fine by the police, Mr Anderson did appear to have softened his tone for now. He was quoted on Nottinghamshire Live as saying of the incident ,”No one can convince me that this was a party. A gathering at work that broke the rules? Yes. But a party? No”. It remains to be seen what his view may be if further fines are issued.

Baillie, Siobhan [Signs of concern for the PM]
First elected in 2019 but would lose her Stroud seat heavily in any election held under current polling backdrop.  Initially made no notable public comment on Boris, with her twitter account shows her to be very interested in the issue of wetlands at the moment. Voted against the government on covid restrictions. However in April she described the lockdown fines as ‘serious’ and noted the investigation has yet to conclude in its entirety. She was quoted in the Stroud News as saying, “I will now listen to my constituents about these latest developments and speak to my parliamentary colleagues after recess.”

Baron, John [Signs of concern for the PM]
Independently minded MP from Essex, who opposed the Gulf War in 2003. Quoted in his local ‘Echo’ newspaper as saying in relation to the Gray Report, “It’s essential that these shortcomings are put right, and we’ll know more when all investigations are complete”. In April 2022, he appeared to take a more hostile tone over partygate. Speaking in the Commons he said, “I  have made my disquiet known to the Prime Minister a couple of times now, and he has taken that on board”.

Beresford, Sir Paul [Signs of concern for the PM]
Dentist and veteran MP from Surrey who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest.  Has been quoted in the Guardian as saying, “As we await the full report on events, and in all likelihood for the foreseeable futureI and many of my parliamentary colleagues will regard the prime minister as being ‘on licence’. He has behaved foolishly and is undeniably a diminished figure now”.

Blackman, Bob [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former Member of the London Assembly who would narrowly lose his Harrow East seat to Labour in any election that reflected current opinion poll levels.  He was one of the first MPs to be openly critical after the ‘partygate’ allegations emerged, saying: ‘People are rightly furious… I am clear that those who set the rules must abide by them or face the consequences’.

Butler, Rob [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former magistrate, first elected for Aylesbury in 2019.  He has told his local newspaper, the Bucks Herald, that he would wait until the Metropolitan Police report is finished before offering a clear-cut response on what consequences the Prime minister should face.

Cartlidge, James [Signs of concern for the PM]
Elected in 2015.  Junior justice minister. Backed Jeremy Hunt in 2019. After the issuing of the police fixed penalty notice, he issued a statement on his website. In the statement, he said that he knew the PM and Chancellor were ‘going to give it their all’ and made other supportive noises about the PM getting the big calls right. However the statement also talks about both ‘sides of the ledger’, and contains the words ‘as challenging as circumstances may be’. Outwardly the statement appears to be backing the PM, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine, but you might also be forgiven, for wondering about the extent to which the comments have been carefully crafted. It is certainly more nuanced than we have seem from many other government ministers.

Cates,  Miriam [Signs of concern for the PM]
Elected in 2019 for Penistone and Stocksbridge in South Yorkshire.  She would lose her seat to Labour in an election that reflected current opinion polling levels. She has not directly publicly commented on whether she thinks Boris should resign, but has previously told the Sheffield Star that, “whoever is found to have broken the rules must face consequences – according to the law – without fear or favour.”

Caulfield, Maria [Signs of concern for the PM]
Junior health minister who has worked as a nurse at the Royal Marsden.  Initially backed Dominic Raab in the 2019 leadership contest.  She would comfortably lose her Lewes seat in Sussex to the Lib Dems in any election based on current opinion polling. After the issuing of lock down rules said on Twitter that the PM and Chancellor needed to get on with their jobs, but also reaffirmed that she was critical of events in Downing Street. An earlier statement on her website had said, “I spoke out publicly when Dominic Cummings broke the rules during lockdown and called for his resignation and so I will be calling for action against anyone who has been found to have broken the rules. It is clear that there was a culture inside Number 10 where even if rules were not technically broken, the spirit of the rules were, and this is completely unacceptable”.fro

Chalk, Alex [Signs of concern for the PM]
Solicitor General on the left of the Conservative party.  Supported Matt Hancock in the 2019 leadership election.   He would comfortably lose his Cheltenham seat to the Lib Dems in any election based on current polling. Chalk has been reported to be concerned about Johnson’s comments in relation to Jimmy Saville and according to the Guardian is said to be on ‘resignation watch’.

Churchill, Jo [Signs of concern for the PM]
Junior environment minister from Bury St Edmunds.  Backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership contest.  She has publicly gone further than many ministers, writing in her local paper that, “many constituents have written to me about their anger and frustration at the current situation regarding Downing Street. I have made these views very clear to the prime minister”.

Davies, Philip [Signs of concern for the PM]
Outspoken MP on the right of the Conservative party who is married to fellow MP, Esther McVey. He backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election.  He would comfortably lose his Shipley seat in West Yorkshire to Labour in any general election based on current opinion polling levels. He is quoted as saying that the Sue Gray report has ‘damaged trust’ in Boris Johnson.  In an indication that he was wavering, earlier in the year, he was reported to have been seen going into Downing Street as part of group on the right of the party to meet the PM. He has been quoted in his local Telegraph and Argus telling a constituent that, “It was completely unacceptable for the PM to have broken the lockdown laws that he imposed on the rest of us – laws I opposed throughout – and it is unjustifiable”.

Dinenage, Caroline [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former minister from the military seat of Gosport on the Hampshire coast.  She was sacked by Boris Johnson in his autumn 2021 reshuffle.  She backed Jeremy Hunt rather than Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership content. Previously commented to ITV that, “People rightly have concerns. I have concerns” adding, “The prime minister says there was no party, that he’s been assured there was no party. He says that he has instructed the cabinet secretary to look into this ,and be doubly sure that there will be repercussions if that turns out to be wrong”. In April she said she would not be commenting further until the police investigation was over.

Duguid, David [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former Scottish office minister, who was dismissed from the government in 2021.  Backed Michael Gove in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Would be in danger of losing his Bannff and Buchan seat to the SNP if an election was held based on current opinion polls.   He has been very quiet on the PMs future, but is suspected to have similar views to many of his Scottish Conservative colleagues who are worried about Johnson’s unpopularity in Scotland. Has said he will not be commenting further until the full Gray report is published.

Duncan Smith, Iain [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former Conservative leader who was once himself pressured out by the parliamentary party.  Backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election.   His previously safe Chingford seat in north London has become one of the most marginal seats in the country over the last decade, and now looks highly likely to fall to Labour at the next election.  He told Talk Radio that he was critical of a lack of ‘leadership’ culture from the top in Downing Street, but also said that the PM has got some of the big calls right during the pandemic.  Mr Duncan Smith, previously told the i newspaper that the PM would find it difficult to hold onto his post if the force fine him. However his approach has changed (for now) following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the day that the police fine actually came, he then ‘tweeted’, “We are all angry, but the PM must stay. Britain faces a series of national crises. This is the worst possible time to crate a vacuum at Westminster”. Unclear though, that he can be relied upon for the long term.

Elphicke, Natalie [Signs of concern for the PM]
Elected in 2019 as the MP for the once marginal Dover seat in Kent.  She looks likely to narrowly retain her seat if a general election was held on the basis of the current opinion polls. Former finance lawyer. Has publicly commented that she was ‘shocked’ by the partygate allegations, but would wait for the outcome of the Gray investigation.

Farris, Laura [Signs of concern for the PM]
New MP elected in 2019 for Newbury.  Considered to be on the ‘One Nation’ wing of the Conservative party. Barrister whose late father was a Conservative MP for her current seat. In response to partygate allegations, she has told the BBC that, “The rules were clear and unequivocal at that point in time. I don’t think anybody thought you were meant to be having parties”. Interestingly, sits on the Commons privileges committee now investigating the PM.

Foster, Kevin [Signs of concern for the PM]
Junior home office minister from Torbay.  He backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election.  Has publicly noted how he and his wife did not visit a close relative who was seriously ill and passed away in early 2021, commenting to Devon Live that, “We therefore take the same view as other Torbay residents about allegations that others were not doing the same”.

Freeman, George [Signs of concern for the PM]
Science minister, who supported Matt Hancock in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  One of a couple of government ministers who appear to have gone further than most in being critical of partygate.  Was reported by the Times to have written a letter to a Norfolk constituent in which he said he was “flabbergasted” by the allegations, and that those in positions of power, “shouldn’t seek to escape public responsibility or accountability”.

Gideon, Jo [Signs of concern for the PM]
Red Wall MP elected for Stoke on Trent Central in 2019.  Would easily lose her seat to Labour based on current opinion poll levels. She was publicly very critical of the first Downing Street party allegation, being quoted in the Stoke Sentinel as saying, “Like everyone, I spent the Christmas period in lockdown alone at home in Stoke-on-Trent, unable to see friends, family or colleagues. The allegations of Christmas parties in Downing Street and the video released by ITV have sparked outrage and should not go ignored, especially given the sacrifices we were all making during the same period”.

Glen, John [Signs of concern for the PM]
Salisbury MP and current treasury minister under Rishi Sunak.  Former magistrate.  Backed Boris Johnson in the final stages of the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. Appears to have gone further than some ministers in publicly expressing his displeasure at partygate.  Writing in the Salisbury Journal he said, “I have made strong representations to my whip, conveying the anger of constituents and indeed my own conviction that this needs to be dealt with definitively”.  Continuing he said, “I do not and will not seek to defend what happened and will be continuing to make my feelings known”.

Grant, Helen [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former sports minister who represents Maidstone in Kent.  Appointed by Boris Johnson in 2021 as his ‘Special Envoy for Girls’ and has been in both Nepal and South Sudan in recent months.    Once a Labour party member, she backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  However, she is quoted in Kent Online as saying that Boris Johnson’s apology over partygate has done “little to quell her extreme concern over this very sorry state of affairs”.

Gray, James [Signs of concern for the PM]
Veteran MP who has been an MP in Wiltshire since 1997.  Has said he would wait for the findings of the inquiries and would not join a ‘kangaroo’ court against the PM.  However he was also quoted in the Wilts and Gloucestershire Standard as saying, “But you can be certain that if any of these allegations are found to be true, and if the PM or other senior people are shown to have been involved, then our support for them will, without doubt, disappear”.

Green, Damian [Signs of concern for the PM] 
Former deputy prime minister and ally of Theresa May, who was himself forced to step down after an investigation by the said Sue Gray.  He did back Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership content.  On the One Nation wing of the party, not necessarily a Johnson bed fellow. As yet does not appear to have made any notable public comment on the PM’s future per se. Has though been quoted in the Telegraph as saying the government was in very ‘dangerous’ territory and no one should be attempting to put pressure on the police investigation.

Hart, Sally-Ann [Signs of concern for the PM]
MP for Hastings since 2019, she would comfortably lose the seat to Labour based on current opinion polling levels. Another former magistrate (there are quite a few in this list…) who has told Sussex Live, that she was ‘extremely concerned’ about the allegations made against the prime minister and had met the chief whip to highlight her concerns.  She has previously said she was waiting for the conclusion of the Gray inquiry.

Heald, Oliver [Signs of concern for the PM]
Veteran MP from Hertfordshire.  Remainer who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 conservative leadership election. Reacting to the Gray Report he told his local ‘Comet’ newspaper that he was awaiting the outcome of the police investigation and that he wanted to study the full Gray Report when available, adding, “Clearly what has happened in Downing Street should not have happened and the police investigations and the full Gray Report will tell us where the fault lies. I want to see the full facts.”

Henry, Darren  [Signs of concern fo rthe PM]
Elected in 2019 as the MP for Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire.  Would comfortably lose the seat to Labour in a general election that mirrored current opinion poll standings. Initially appeared supportive of the PM, telling his local Nottinghamshire Live that, “We just need to realise that nobody is perfect, people do make mistakes”. However after the PM was issued a fixed penalty notice his tone seems to have changed. He said that due to the PM’s public facing role he expected a public apology, adding, ‘I am not going to make my final statement until the full Sue Gray report is released’.

Holmes, Paul [Signs of concern for the PM]
Elected in 2019 for Eastleigh in Hampshire.  He serves as PPS to Priti Patel.  Limited public comments, but has been reported as being particularly uneasy about events in Downing Street, and has held an in person meeting with the prime minister.

Howell, Paul [Signs of concern]
Red Wall MP for Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield. Would lose the seat to Labour if a general election was held on the basis of current opinion polling. He has said he has been appalled by the reported behaviour. He has been linked in the media with the ‘pork pie’ plotters from the 2019 intake. At the start of the year, he wrote on Facebook that “in a democracy, nobody is above the law, and those who make the rules cannot retain credibility if they are found to have broken the rules themselves”. In April, on Twitter he appeared to have somewhat softened his stance after the police issued their fines to the PM and the Chancellor, and pointed to the work they were doing levelling up. He said it was right that those who broke the rules that they helped implement faced the consequences, but said in relation to the 10 minute meeting that lay behind the pair’s fine, that “I do not consider it to be a resigning matter”. It remains to be seen if this remains his position if new fines are issued to the PM for other gatherings.

Jenkin, Bernard [Signs of concern for the PM]
Veteran MP and Brexiter who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election.  He chairs the House of Commons liaison committee, and is likely to chair the committee on privileges that will now look at whether the PM has misled parliament . Previously quoted in the Independent as saying that the PM will be ‘judged on results’ over the next few months, before rather unhelpfully adding that Conservative MPs ‘need no reminder’ as to how to dispose of a failing leader.  Post the PMs mini cabinet reshfuffle, he was quickly on Sky News to claim MPs were not interested in the optics or impression of change.

Jones, David [Signs of concern for the PM]
Brexiter who backed Johnson in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Would lose his Clwyd West seat to labour at current opinion polling levels.   Previously said that his constituents are more concerned about the ‘cost of living’ than they are parties about Downing Street. On Twitter he also appeared to praise the restructuring of Downing Street tweeting, ‘The clear-out in Downing Street is welcome’ before then saying, ‘it has tp go deeper and further’. Initially we didn’t view this last comment as necessarily cryptic. After the police issued the PM with a fine, Mr Jones was though quoted in the Rhyl Journal, saying of the PM that people ‘expected better of him’ and that he would be having ‘discussions with colleagues’.

Lamont, John [Signs of concern for the PM]
MP for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk who would be in danger of losing his seat to SNP if an election was held based on current polling.  He backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative leadership election. Has been critical of the garden party event in May 2020, describing it as ‘unacceptable’ and has called for the Gray report to be published in full. He is quoted in his local Border Telegraph as saying, “No one is above the law. Not even the Prime minister. Those found to have broken the law must be held accountable.” Has indicated his support for the PM as the Ukraine crisis continues, but given the wider opposition of many leading Scottish Conservatives to the PM, Mr Lamont’s position should be watched closely.

Largan, Robert [Signs of concern for the PM]
Independently minded, Conservative MP for High Peak in the Derbyshire dales.  Elected in 2019 with a perilous majority of just 590 over Labour. In a letter that he wrote to a constituent, he has been reported as saying “I will not defend the indefensible. We cannot have a situation where it is one rule for politicians and another rule for everyone else. I can assure you that I will be taking the appropriate action to defend integrity in public life”.

Latham, Pauline [Signs of concern for the PM]
Brexiter who represents Mid Derbyshire. Speaking to Derbyshire Live, she said, “Ultimately, the buck stops with those at the top but I am currently balancing these misjudgements against the prime minister’s successes during the pandemic”.  She claims to be giving the PM “the benefit of the doubt for the time being”. However she has also told Times Radio that, “If he has lied to Parliament, there will be no choice”. After the police issued the PM with a lockdown fine, she was quoted in Derbyshire Live as saying, “As I said earlier this year, it is an extremely serious matter for the Prime Minister and the Chancellor to have been found to have breached the law. Even more so when it was a law they themselves repeatedly asked us not to break every single day during lockdown”.

Levy, Ian [Signs of concern for the PM]
The first Red Wall MP whose Blyth Valley result (small majority of 712) came in early on election night.  He told his local Chronicle paper that, ‘the public deserves better than this’.  In the media it has been speculated that he could be connected to the so called ‘pork pie’ plotters of MPs from the 2019 intake who are hostile to the PM. He has been quoted in the Daily Telegraph as saying that he was unable to see his wife’s mother when she was dying in a nursing home and that he understands the real public anger over the issue.  He has also said that, “Waiting for the inquiry is not, on my part, an attempt to avoid the issue, but to ensure we can be aware of the facts”.

Lewis, Julian [Signs of concern for the PM]
Extremely independent minded MP from the New Forest who lost the Conservative whip for many months earlier in this parliament when standing to become chair of the Commons intelligence and security committee on the back of Labour votes. He backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election, but has called for the PM to publish the Gray report in full and immediately.

Mayhew, Jerome [Signs of concern for the PM]
Barrister elected in 2019.  His late father, Sir Patrick, was once the long standing Conservative MP for Tunbridge Wells and former Attorney General. It is potentially hard to imagine Sir Patrick being impressed with current matters. Jerome Mayhew has expressed his frustration that the Gray report has been ‘fettered by the Met police investigation’. After the PM was issued a lockdown fine by police, he told the Eastern Daily Press that, he needed to give the matter “serious thought” before he was able to respond.

Maynard, Paul [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former minister who backed Johnson in the 2019 content.  However he is reported in the Guardian as having said to a constituent that, “events of recent months have dented my confidence in the prime minister to say the least, and I feel he has seriously let the country as a whole down”. His Blackpool North seat would be on a knife edge if a general election reflected the current opinion poll position.

Mercer, Johnny [Signs of concern for the PM]
Agitated former veterans minister from Plymouth who resigned from the government in 2021.  Another very independently minded MP, albeit one who did back Boris in the 2019 leadership election.   In a public statement issued when the partygate allegations first emerged, Mercer said, “A truly terrible and sad day.  Awful for the people of Plymouth who have given and lost so much obeying rules imposed by Downing Street, a sad day for colleagues who have worked hard to support a No10 clearly out of control”.  Rather than back the PM, he told his local Plymouth Live website that he would not be commenting on whether he had submitted a letter of no confidence.

Metcalfe, Stephen [Signs of concern for the PM]
Backed Michael Gove in the 2019 conservative leadership election.   Has described in his local Echo newspaper how he watched his father in law’s funeral online at the time of the alleged parties in Number 10.   Although citing anger from other members of his family, he has yet to call for the PM to resign himself.  He appears to be waiting for the full report having said that the Gray Report has so far told him little and he didn’t know to what extent ‘Boris attended or joined in with these gatherings yet’.

Millar, Robin  [Signs of concern for the PM]
His Aberconwy seat in north Wales would comfortably be won by Labour if an election was held based on current opinion poll levels.  He is a former director of the Conservative Christian Fellowship.  He has said that the mood among MPs was they were ‘really not impressed’ by the whole affair, describing the damage it was causing as ‘considerable’.

Moore, Damien  [Signs of concerns for the PM]
Trade envoy for Tunisia and Libya, who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership contest.  Would comfortably lose his Southport seat to Labour  if an election was held today based on current opinion poll levels. Backed the PM in his overhaul of the No.10 operation, but has also told his local paper that he is awaiting the conclusions of the Met Police inquiry and the full Gray report before making any further comment. Previously commented on social media that he was “extremely disappointed at this clear lapse in judgement” in relation to news that the PM had apparently briefly attended the May garden party.

Moore, Robbie [Signs of concern for the PM]
Elected in 2019, gaining his Keighly seat from Labour with a majority of 2,218. He would comfortably lose that seat to Labour if an election was held on the back of current opinion poll levels. He has also said publicly that he is in infuriated by the ‘partygate’ allegations, and that, “If any event took place that was in breach of the rules, the strongest disciplinary action must be taken, and I will continue to follow any revelations on this closely.”

Mordaunt, Penny [Signs of concern for the PM]
Ambitious trade minister and former TV celebrity diving contestant. She is touted in the media (despite the improbability of success) as a candidate to replace Johnson. Former defence secretary who left the government when Boris became Prime minister in 2019. She  backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 conservative leadership election. According to the Daily Mail is one of a few ministers who are on a so called ‘resignation watch’ reflecting their unease with the current situation.

Neill, Bob [Signs of concern for the PM]
Independently minded MP from south east London who backed Michael Gove in the 2019 conservative leadership election.  He was recently critical of Boris Johnson after his comments in relation to Jimmy Saville and Sir Keir Starmer.  On partygate, he said, ‘we cannot have one rule for those working in government and one for the rest of the population’.  He has though said he would wait for the full findings of the Gray Report. In the Commons debate on partygate on April 21st he said there must be consequences from the fines, saying,”Now what the consequence is, I think anyone would accept, in fairness depends upon an ultimate assessment of the measure of culpability”.

Parish, Neil  [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former MEP who backed Remain and supported Michael Gove in the 2019 conservative leadership election. He has been quoted in Devon Live as calling for the ‘full truth’ on the partygate affair saying, “I await the outcome of the inquiry, and what action the prime minister will take in response, if indeed he broke the rules”.

Percy, Andrew [Signs of concern for the PM]
Lincolnshire MP who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  However has commented that he and his constituents are ‘frustrated and irritated’ by the partygate affair.  He has recently put forward the concept of a Freedom Bill’ to repay the covid fines of people who found themselves on the wrong side of the rules for anything other than ‘egregious’ offences.   In further signs of his agitation with the current party leadership, he savaged Jacob Rees Mogg for his attack on the Scottish Conservative Leader, Douglas Ross, after Mr Ross had himself called for the PM to resign.

Randall, Tom [Signs of concern for the PM]
Elected in 2019 for Gedling in Nottinghamshire with a small majority of 679.   Some media reports have linked him to the so called ‘pork pie’ plot of newly elected MPs from 2019.  He was quoted on Nottinghamshire Live as saying, “People are rightly very angry about what has happened. I share that anger. We must all obey the rules, without exception, and be accountable for our behavior”. He appears to have accepted the PM’s explanation in relation to the fixed penalty notice relating to the birthday cake event, but at the same time then referenced the other events that Sue Gray and the police are investigating.

Robertson, Laurence [Signs of concern for the PM]
Veteran Tewkesbury MP who was unable to visit his dying father in hospital due to Covid rules.  In an email sent to constituents that was published on Gloucestershire Live he has referenced how the May Downing Street gathering was held five days after his father’s funeral. He commented that he would wait for the Gray report, but not because he wanted to hide behind the report or kick the matter into the ‘long grass’ but because he wanted to review the whole situation. Backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election, but was removed from an unpaid trade envoy role by the government after voting against the Prime minister’s Plan B Covid-19 restrictions in December. In April 2022, he issued a statement to say that he still ‘cannot make a concrete judgement’ regarding partygate and is now waiting to see the results of the rest of the police invesigation.

Seeley, Bob [Signs of concerns for the PM]
Isle of Wight MP. Has said that the PM has apologised and hoped that he will learn lessons.   He was initially quoted in the Isle of Wight County Press saying, “Whilst not downplaying this, I think a sense of proportion is valuable”, adding, “I would much rather parliament and government focused on delivering priorities that are important for our country and for the Island, and that’s what I am focused on”. However ahead of a Commons vote in April about referring the PM to a commons committee, he appeared to be taking a more questioning line when speaking on the BBC Radio 4’s ‘World at One’. He said, ‘Genuinely I don’t know how I am going to vote”, adding, “It’s quite clear that if Number Ten staff didn’t think they were risking death by having an end of work drinks. Clearly the rules imposed on us were not believed by some”. Supported Michael Gove in the 2019 conservative leadership election.

Selous, Andrew [Signs of concern for the PM]
Long standing MP from south west Bedfordshire.  He is chairman of the Conservative Christian Fellowship.  He has been quoted on Bedfordshire Live as saying he ‘was very angry and upset’ about the Downing Street gatherings, adding, “I have made my views very clear about the standards which I expect to be maintained by all those in power in future”. He has also been quoted in the Guardian as telling constituents, “I want every one of these allegations to be fully and independently investigated, if necessary, by the police and I want all of those, however senior, who have broken the law or government guidance to be appropriately punished”.

Shelbrooke, Alex [Signs of concern for the PM]
Independent minded MP from Elmet in Yorkshire who has been ferociously critical of the government in the Commons about the delay in housing Ukrainian refugees. After the police issued the PM with a fixed penalty notice, he told his local Harrogate advertister that now was ‘not the right time’ for the PM to go and there were pressing issues that needed addressing. However Mr Shelbrooke has also said, that he ‘won’t defend the indefensible’ and that he had told this to Mr Johnson’s face. He also added that he had knocked on a very large number of doors since January and so knew how angry people were in relation to ‘partygate’.

Simmonds, David [Signs of concern for the PM]
Elected in 2019 for a neighbouring constituency to the PM in north west London.  He has though not been afraid to fire off some criticisms to the PM telling BBC London, “We’re all pretty frustrated with the situation” continuing that holding a party in lockdown was “clearly indefensible” and it should not be impossible for Mr Johnson to say whether he was there or not. In April, asked the PM in the Commons how he planned to restore the moral authority of the government.

Smith, Greg [Signs of concern for the PM]
Elected in 2019 for the safe seat of Buckingham.  Positioned on the right of the Conservative party.  Told his local Bucks Free Press that he was not sure that Johnson’s accounts at the Commons dispatch box where necessary helping his case, adding “My patience on this matter is very thin, but before I reach any absolutely solid conclusions, I wish to see the independent findings of Sue Gray”. Lost both his grandparents during the pandemic and has said he will not defend Boris Johnson over partygate. Has suggested the war in Ukraine is one reason for Mr Johnson not to step down.

Sunderland, James [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former army corporal first elected in 2019 for the safe seat of Bracknell in Berkshire.  He was quoted in January in the Guardian as saying that he was “furious” at the apparent lack of grip relating to the situation, adding, something has “clearly gone wrong with the political machine at No 10.”

Timpson, Edward [Signs of concern for the PM]
Former PPS to Theresa May.  Son of Sir John Timpson from the Timpson retail group. Was initially quiet on partygate, but has started to show his hand after the PM was issued a fixed penalty notice. In a statement, he described the events as ‘shameful’ and said he was not prepared to defend the indefensible. In signs of real passion lurking within him on the matter he continued, “I am appalled that we did not see that selflessness at the heart of government, and can only say it makes the example that those who have contacted me about their own experiences set shine all the greater”.

__________________________________________________

Block 4 – Currently lying low

Aiken, Nickie [Currently lying low]
London MP appointed by Johnson as a vice chair of the Conservative party in 2020.  Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Ansell, Caroline [Currently lying low]
Eastbourne MP who would lose her seat to the Liberal Democrats based on current polling. Previously resigned as a government PPS over the government’s response to the free school meals campaign led by Marcus Rashford.  Evangelical christian. Has so far commented in the Eastbourne Herald that, “I am just as concerned as anyone to know what has happened and why. There is an investigation and I would urge it to be completed and its findings published as soon as possible”.

Atherton, Sarah [Currently lying low]
First Conservative woman MP in Wales.  Gained Wrexham in 2019 but would comfortably lose her 2,213 majority seat in any election based on current polling.  In a joint statement with neighbouring Clwyd MP, Simon Baynes said she welcomed the PM’s apology and commitment to restructure Downing Street, but that it was ‘not appropriate’ to make judgements until the findings of the Metropolitan Police Investigation’.

Atkins, Victoria [Currently lying low]
Home office minister appointed by Boris Johnson. Has been very quiet on the partygate revelations. Her father was previously a Conservative MP and then MEP. He is a close personal friend of former PM, and arch Johnson critic, John Major.

Bacon, Gareth [Currently lying low]
Took over from Boris’ brother in Orpington in 2019.  Served on the London Assembly at the same time as Boris Johnson was Mayor.  Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Bradley, Ben [Currently lying low]
Leader of Nottinghamshire County Council who backed Boris in 2019.  Told the Nottingham Post that ‘clearly a lot of mistakes have been made’ and that he hoped the Gray report would ‘allow us to draw a line under it one way or another’.

Brady, Graham [Currently lying low]
The man who receives the letters, and who keeps his own counsel. He did though ‘like’ a tweet welcoming the appointment of Stephen Barclay as the PM’s new chief of staff.   He has been an MP since 1997.  However his once safe Altrincham and Sale West seat has become much more marginal in recent years.  Based on the current opinion polls, he looks likely to lose it quite comfortably to Labour if an election was held today.

Brereton, Jack [Currently lying low]
Young MP who represents Stoke South.  In an election today, he would still hold his seat based on current polling.  He has been critical of the support that his local party is receiving local from Conservative HQ.  Currently serves as PPS to defence secretary, Ben Wallace.  Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Britcliffe, Sara [Currently lying low]
Youngest Conservative MP.  Red Wall MP elected for Hyndburn in Lancashire in 2019.  Would comfortably lose her 2,951 majority seat in an election based on current election polling. Writing in her local newspaper, Britcliffe said, “There is clearly a case to be answered for and we need to make sure it is investigated fully. I will reflect on the findings as they come out and continue to listen to feedback from residents”.  She did though recently ‘like’ a ‘tweet’ from a fellow MP that was welcoming the changes made in No10 and suggesting that the PM is delivering.

Bruce, Fiona [Currently lying low]
Cheshire MP and evangelical Christian who currently serves as the prime minister’s special envory for freedom of religion or belief.  She backed Sajid Javid in the 2019 leadership contest. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Cairns, Alun [Currently lying low]
Former secretary of state for Wales who backed Boris in 2019.  Would comfortably lose his Vale of Glamorgan seat in any election based on the current polling. Initially didn’t comment publicly on partygage, but after the issuing of a police fine, tweeted to say, ‘These are serious matters and the PM has said that people have the right to expect better’, but also added that ‘Ukraine must be our priority and the PM’s continued focus’.

Carter, Andy [Currently lying low]
Former magistrate elected in 2019.   Sits on a narrow majority of 2,010 in Warrington South.  Would easily lose his seat in any election that reflected current polling. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future, but is one of 7 MPs to sit on the Commons privileges committee that is now set to investigate the PM’s conduct.

Chisti, Rehman [Currently lying low]
Gillingham MP and one time Labour party Parliamentary candidate for Horsham.  Backed Boris in the 2019 contest.  Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Costa, Alberto [Currently lying low]
Leicestershire MP who backed Michael Gove in the 2019 leadership election. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future. He did though appear to welcome the appointment of Steve Barclay to No.10 on Twitter. Sits on the Commons privileges committee now investigating the PM. Has rebelled against the government in the past, but is currently the PPS to the Attorney General.

Coutinho, Claire [Currently lying low]
Elected in 2019 for safe seat in Surrey.  Tipped as a future rising star of the party. Currently PPS to Rishi Sunak.  Has been active on the airwaves attacking claims by some MPs of bullying behavior by government whips. However according to the New Statesman, she has irked Number 10, by apparently championing Mr Sunak’s credentials to fellow MPs.

Crosbie, Virginia [Currently lying low]
Anglesey MP, elected in 2019, who would comfortably lose her seat to Labour based on current polling.  Initially appeared to give a positive response to Johnson’s response to the Gray report telling Wales Online, that “On Monday, the PM accepted the findings of the independent Sue Gray report and has assured parliament and myself personally that he will act swiftly and decisively on her recommendations. I welcome this”. Following the war in Ukraine, also said that now is not the time for ‘hasty action’. But in a sign that her mind is not fully closed on the matter, after the police issued a fine, she told the Rhyl Journal, that ‘Moving forward, I want to listen to my constituents over the next few days, I want to see the culmination of the investigation, and I want to speak to my colleagues when parliament returns next week’.

Daly, James [Currently lying low]
The Conservative MP for Bury North with the honour of holding the party’s most marginal seat (105 votes).  He has been active in saying that he has not felt any pressure from government whips, but has not commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Davies, Gareth [Currently lying low]
First elected in 2019 for the safe seat of Grantham. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Davies, James [Currently lying low]
A medical doctor, who won the Vale of Clwyd back for the Conservatives in 2019.  Would comfortably lose the seat to Labour in an election that was held today based on the current polls. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Djanogly, Jonathan [Currently lying low]
Long standing MP for the safe seat of Huntingdon in Cambridgeshire, one that was previously represented by John Major.  He backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. Rebelled over covid passports.  Said he was pleased to see the PM apologise to the Commons, but it was now necessary to wait for the full inquiry.

Edwards, Ruth [Currently lying low]
Elected in 2019, taking over Kenneth Clarke’s seat at Westminster. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Evans, Nigel [Currently lying low]
Veteran MP and deputy Commons Speaker.  Backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election and historically would be regarded as a supporter of the PM.  However he has said that he won’t be commenting on the current situation given his role as a Commons Deputy Speaker.

Evennett, Sir David [Currently lying low]
Veteran MP who first entered the Commons back in 1983.  He backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. Active member of St.Paulinus Church in Crayford. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Everitt, Ben [Currently lying low]
First to Westminster in 2019, but would comfortably lose his Milton Keynes North seat to Labour in any general election reflecting the current opinion polls.  Currently appears quiet about the future of the PM.

Evans, Luke [Currently lying low]
Medical doctor with a safe seat in Leicestershire.  First elected to Westminster in 2019.  Does not appear to have made any notable public comment around the future of the PM.

Fletcher, Mark [Currently lying low]
Defeated Dennis Skinner in 2019, but would now comfortably lose his Bolsover seat to Labour in any election based on current polling levels.  Brexit supporter who describes himself as being driven by his ‘working class British values’.  Quiet on partygate, albeit in past times has praised the PMs optimism and described him as a “brilliant” politician and leader.

Ford, Vicky [Currently lying low]
Foreign office minister who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Sits on the left of the Conservative party.  Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate, as yet.

Freer, Mike [Currently lying low]
Current foreign office minister and former whip. Backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative party leadership.   Based on current opinion polls levels, he would likely lose his Finchley and Golders Green seat to the Lib Dems. In media interviews, appears to have refused to say if he believed the PMs position is ‘safe’.

French, Louie [Currently lying low]
New Conservative MP, elected in a December 2019 by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup.  Has already rebelled on Covid, but has not made any public comment on partygate.

Francois, Mark [Currently lying low]
Feisty Brexiter and long term opponent of John Bercow. He once submitted a letter of no confidence in Theresa May and backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate. It is worth noting, that two of his political friends on the right of the party, Steve Baker and Andrew Bridgen are amongst those now openly calling for the PM to go.

Frazer, Lucy  [Currently lying low]
Treasury Minister who works with Rishi Sunak.   Tipped for the cabinet one day.  Backed Boris Johnson in 2019.   The Lib Dems would mount a close and possibly successful challenge  in her South East Cambridgeshire seat based on current opinion polling levels. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Fysh, Marcus [Currently lying low]
Yeovil MP who supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Reacted positively to the appointment of fellow MP Andy Griffiths to help with the Downing Street operation, tweeting, ‘Great to see a Conservative appointed in Number 10’ (we presume a dig at Dominic Cummings). In September 2021, had written that the PM was ‘losing sight’ of what it means to be a conservative.

Grayling, Chris [Currently lying low]
Former cabinet minister who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Griffiths, Kate [Currently lying low]
Elected for Burton in 2019.  She has not commented publicly on the future of the PM directly.  However she has told her local ‘Times, Echo, and Life’ media that, “I know constituents are feeling very let down and angry at the latest allegations, and I feel the same”, adding, “If those found to have been writing the rules were also breaking them, then further action will need to be taken”.

Grundy, James [Currently lying low]
Red Wall MP elected for Leigh in Greater Manchester in 2019.  Has a small majority and would comfortably lose his seat if any election was held based on today’s opinion polls.  Has criticized both Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer in the same statement for attending drinking events with staff during lockdown.  Prior to the Gray report, he commented that he ‘will act accordingly on its findings’.

Henderson, Gordon [Currently lying low]
Brexiter MP from north Kent.  Defended the PM in relation to his attack on Sir Keir Starmer over Jimmy Saville saying, “My own view is that, in the cut and thrust of debate, it was perfectly legitimate what he said, because being at the coalface, I have heard the leader of the opposition Keir Starmer, on a number of occasions, boasting about when he was head of the CPS, prosecuting all sorts of different people. He didn’t prosecute them, but as head of the CPS, he took the credit for having done so”.

Holden, Richard [Currently lying low]
Red Wall MP for North West Durham with a small majority of 1,144. Would comfortably lose his seat in any general election based on current opinion polling.  Had previously said that he was awaiting the outcome of the Gray report, but more recently commented that the defection of Christian Wakeford to Labour had brought an ‘element of calms and reality’ to the situation.

Hollobone, Philip [Currently lying low]
Brexiter on the right of the Conservative party.  Special Constable in the British Transport police.  Initially commented that ‘there cannot be one rule for the government and one for the rest of us’ but has not made any recent comment on the future of the PM.

Hall, Luke [Currently lying low]
Former junior minister, who was reshuffled out of the government in the autumn of 2021.    Backed Sajid Javid in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Limited public comment on partygate aside from saying that, ‘I share the anger about allegations’.

Harris, Rebecca  [Currently lying low]
Brexiter and now government whip with now one of the safest Conservative seats in the country in south Essex.  No evident public comments on partygate.

Huddleston, Nigel [Currently lying low]
Junior minister.   Backed Sajid Javid in the 2019 leadership election.  Member of the Tory Reform Group on the left of the Conservative party. In public has said he will be studying events as they unfold and that the PM was right to apologise. After the police fines were issued, he gave the stock line you might expect of a government mininster, saying of Johnson and Sunak, “They have my support because I know that they, and the whole government, are committed to delivering on the priorities of the British people including dealing with the situation in Ukraine, the recovery from the pandemic, and the cost of living”.

Hunt, Jane [Currently lying low]
Loughborough MP who would comfortably lose her seat to Labour based on current opinion polling levels.  Is a PPS to Steve Barclay, the minister recently put in charge of the Downing Street operation.

Johnson, Caroline [Currently lying low]
NHS consultant.  Brexiter who supported her namesake Boris in the 2019 leadership election. In response to the Gray report, told the House of Commons, that “I am glad that the prime minister has come here to apologise and to take on board the recommendations, but I am concerned that this is taking time and attention from key issues”.

Johnston, David [Currently lying low]
Newly MP elected for Wantage in 2019.  His seat would likely experience a knife edge contest with the Liberal Democrats in any election held on the basis of current opinion poll levels.  Has commented that he was not even going to try and defend ‘partygate’. He is quoted on the website of his local Herald newspaper as saying, “Everyone – whoever they are – is entitled to have the full facts made public about what they are accused of and then be given the opportunity to take the action they think they should as a result.”

Jupp, Simon [Currently lying low]
Elected in 2019 for East Devon.  He is a former special advisor to Dominic Raab. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Kawczynski, Daniel [Currently lying low]
Brexiter who backed Johnson in the 2019 conservative leadership election.  Would narrowly lose his Shrewsbury seat to labour if an election was held on the basis of the current opinion polls. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Keegan, Gillian [Currently lying low]
Health minister. On the left of the Conservative party having backed Rory Stewart and then Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership contest.   Godmother to John Bercow’s children. She was booed in April on Radio 4’s ‘Any questions’ when appearing to dodge a series of questions on whether the PM and Chancellor behaved ethically.

Knight, Greg [Currently lying low]
Veteran MP, who was a whip in the Major government.  Brexiter who backed Johnson in the 2019 leadership election.  He has issued a statement saying that he feels it is “judicious” to await the outcome of the inquiries rather than passing judgement or comment when only part of the circumstances have been reviewed.

Laing, Eleanor [Currently lying low]
Long standing MP for Epping Forest.   Unlikely to comment publicly given her role as the Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons.

Leadsom, Andrea [Currently lying low]
Former cabinet minister who left the cabinet in 2020.  Brexiter who heavily disrupted Boris Johnson’s  ‘non starting’ leadership bid in 2016 by declaring her own candidacy. Describes herself as a proud christian.  Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate, but welcomed the appointment of the new government chief whip in February 2022.

Lewer, Andrew [Currently lying low]
Brexiter who backed Johnson in the 2019 leadership election.  Removed from his post as a PPS in 2020.  Under current polling, his Northampton South seat would comfortably be gained by labour.  Does not appear to have made any statement on the PM’s future.

Liddell-Grainger, Ian [Currently lying low]
Veteran MP from Somerset who is a descendent of Queen Victoria.  Backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election. Has told his local Somerset County Gazette that the Downing Street parties were an ‘absolute breach of trust’ and ‘utterly indefensible’, but has not yet commented publicly on the future of the PM.

Lopez, Julia [Currently lying low]
Junior Minister and the MP for Hornchurch. Does not appear to have made any notable public comments on partygate.

Lopresti, Jack [Currently lying low]
Brexiter who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Would comfortably lose his Filton and Bradley Stoke seat to Labour based on current opinion polls. He is married to Andrea Jenkyns, who serves in the government whips office.

Lord, Jonathan [Currently lying low]
Surrey MP and Brexiter who backed Dominic Raab in the 2019 leadership election. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Mackrory, Cherilyn [Currently lying low]
Brexit supporting MP from Falmouth and Truro.  Has said she will not be making any comment ahead of the Met Police investigation, suggesting that people were ‘no further forward’ after the Gray report. Would comfortably lose her seat to Labour if an election was held today based on current opinion poll levels.

Mak, Alan [Currently lying low]
Appointed to the government whips office in September 2021 by Boris Johnson. Represents a safe seat on the Hampshire coast.  He has not made any public comment on partygate. Supported Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership contest.

McVey, Esther [Currently lying low]
Former cabinet minister who backed Johnson after her own abortive bid in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Married to the Conservative MP, Philip Davies.  Reported to have been seen going into Downing Street recently for a meeting with the PM as part of a (potentially wavering) group of MPs on the right of the party.

Menzies, Mark [Currently lying low]
The MP for Flyde in Lancashire.  A remainer who supported Michael Gove in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on the future of the PM specifically.

Miller, Maria [Currently lying low]
Former Cabinet minister.   On the basis of current opinion polls, she would retain her Basingstoke constituency, but the battle with Labour would be very close. Does not, as yet, appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Mohindra, Gagan [Currently lying low]
Elected in 2019 for a safe seat in Hertfordshire.  He has since been appointed a PPS. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Mortimer, Jill [Currently lying low]
Conservative MP for Hartlepool having gained the seat in a famous by-election during better times for the prime minister in the spring of 2021.  She has told her local newspaper that she doesn’t wish to make any comment until the investigation into the issue has been concluded.

Mundell, David [Currently lying low]
Former secretary of state for Scotland who backed Michael Gove in the 2019 leadership election.  His Dumfries, Clydesdale and Tweedale seat would be comfortably lost to the SNP on the basis of current polling. Has called for the full Gray report to be published, but unlike some other senior Scottish conservatives, has not gone any further.   His son Oliver is a Member of the Scottish Parliament, and he is one of just four (from a total of 31) Scottish MSPs who has also not yet called for the PM to go.

Murray, Sheryll [Currently lying low]
Cornish MP and Brexiter who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership contest, and who previously submitted a letter of no confidence in Theressa May.  Her public position appears to be that she wants to wait for the full report before making any further comment.

Offord, Matthew [Currently lying low]
Backed Boris in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Would comfortably lose his Hendon seat to Labour if a general election was held today based on current opinion polls. Initially described the party revelations as “horrendous” and said the police should investigate, but has not made any notable public comment on the future of the PM.

Pawsey, Mark [Currently lying low]
Represents Rugby in the Commons, a seat once held by his father.  Supported Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Recently rebelled on the Covid pass issue. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Penning, Mike [Currently lying low]
Hemel Hemstead MP who supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Beyond his name mistakenly appearing on a related Commons motion, does not appear to have made any public comment on the future of the PM.

Penrose, John [Currently lying low]
The MP for Weston-super-Mare. Married to Baroness Dido Harding who once ran the government’s track and trace programme.  Backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership election. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Pow, Rebecca [Currently lying low]
Junior minister, who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Would face a knife edge battle to hold off the Lib Dems in her Taunton Deane constituency at current opinion poll levels. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Prentis, Victoria [Currently lying low]
Jovial farming minister.  Remainer who backed Rory Stewart in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  On the left of the party, and not necessarily a ‘political bedfellow’ of Boris Johnson. Would only narrowly hold off Labour in her previously safe Banbury seat at current opinion poll levels.  So far has offered a straight bat public response to partygate, one which does not provide any detailed insight into her feelings. Has observed the potentially ruthless nature of the parliamentary conservative party close up for many years, with her father sitting as a Conservative MP during the Thatcher era. Friends with the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak.

Pritchard, Mark [Currently lying low]
Supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Clashed with John Bercow when he was Speaker. He is quoted in his local Shropshire Star as saying that it is right that the Gray report should not prejudice any ongoing police investigation’ and that ‘more definitive conclusions’ will come in time. He recently told his local newspaper that he welcomed the appointment of the new Chief Whip. Was quoted in the Shropshire Star as saying that the PM was ‘contrite and humble’ in the light of his fixed penalty notice.

Pursglove, Tom [Currently lying low]
Junior justice minister. Brexiter who backed Johnson in the later stages of the 2019 Conservative leadership election.   Would lose his Corby seat to Labour if a general election was held today based on current opinion polls. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Robinson, Mary [Currently lying low]
Backed Sajid Javid in the 2019 leadership election. Would comfortably lose her Cheadle seat to the Lib Dems based on the current levels of Conservative polling. Posted on Twitter to say that she did not oppose the motion calling for a commons committee to investigate the PM, saying ‘trust in politics and in politicians is an integral part of the contract we have with the people we represent’. Did though say the government’s full focus should be on the challenging situations being faced as ‘home and abroad’.

Rowley, Lee [Currently lying low]
Junior welfare minister who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Russell, Dean [Currently lying low]
Watford MP who would comfortably lose his Watford seat to Labour based on the current levels of Conservative polling. Speaking to the Watford Observer he welcomed the changes that the PM has made at Downing Street and said that he will now wait for the full details of the Met investigation

Skidmore, Chris [Currently lying low]
Supported Johnson in the 2019 leadership election, but was dismissed from his post of universities minister in a subsequent Johnson reshuffle. The result in his Kingswood constituency would be on an absolute knife edge if a general election reflected the current opinion poll levels.  Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Smith, Henry [Currently lying low]
Backed Boris in the 2019 Conservative leadership election. Would lose his Crawley seat to Labour based on the current levels of Conservative polling.  May have been irked by the prime minister seeming to giggle at his recent Commons call for Crawley to be made a city.  Has noted publicly that investigations are being undertaken, but does not seem to have gone any further as yet.

Stephenson, Andrew [Currently lying low]
Transport minister who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Would lose his Pendle seat to Labour based on the current levels of Conservative polling.  Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future, but tweeted to describe the February appointment of Steve Barclay to head up the No.10 operation as an ‘excellent choice’.

Stevenson, Jane [Currently lying low]
Red wall MP elected in 2019, but who would lose her Wolverhampton North East seat to Labour in any general election that reflected the current opinion polls. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future.

Throup, Maggie [Currently lying low]
Supported Matt Hancock in the 2019 leadership contest.  Vaccines minister who struggled with a hostile audience on the BBC’s Question Time when defending the government in December. Recently has only commented on the need to wait for the outcome of the Gray report.  Result in her Erewash constituency would be on an absolute knife edge at current opinion poll levels.

Wallis, Jamie [Currently lying low]
Conservative MP for Bridgend with a slim majority of 1,157.  Elected in 2019, but would easily lose his seat to Labour in any election based on current opinion polling. Became the first MP to come out as ‘trans’ in March 2022. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Watling, Giles [Currently lying low]
Supported Michael Gove in the 2019 leadership election. Has publicly referenced, ‘errors’ in judgment and describes himself as ‘let down by the whole thing’.  Although suggesting the PM has been putting in some good performances, he is also quoted in the Essex County Standard online as saying,, “He must not get in the way of good governance and must not make us unelectable – and the jury is still out on that – but we must wait for the police report.”

Williamson, Gavin [Currently lying low]
Sacked from the cabinet by Boris Johnson in 2021.  He was an active part of the PM’s leadership campaign in 2019, having been seen as hostile to Boris back in 2016.  Newspapers have also reported that an event held at the Department for Education during his tenure as secretary of state is also coming under scrutiny. Mr Williamson does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate. He was awarded a knighthood by the PM in March 2022.

__________________________________________________ 

Block 5 – Probably supportive

Andrew, Stuart  [Probable supporter]
Recently appointed as the new housing minister by the PM. Former conservative deputy chief whip.  Backed Boris in the 2019 contest.  Would though comfortably lose his Pudsey seat in any election based on today’s polling.  Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Benton, Scott [Probable supporter]
Red Wall MP for Blackpool South.  Would comfortably lose his seat amidst current levels of polling. Has attacked Christian Wakeford for defecting to Labour and criticised Keir Starmer for refusing to apologise after drinking beer during lockdown.  Recently accompanied Boris Johnson on a trip to Lancashire.

Badenoch, Kemi [Probable supporter]
Middle ranking minister, tipped for promotion to the cabinet in time.  She has not commented publicly on partygate from what we can seen.

Bailey, Shaun [Probable supporter]
Younger, red Wall MP for West Bromwich West who was elected in 2019.    Would easily lose his seat if a general election was held against the current polling backdrop. Following the police fine issued to the PM, commented on ‘Twitter’ that Boris Johnson was right to ‘hold his hand up’, but the focus should be on the cost of living crisis and Ukraine and that we now need to ‘get on with the job’.

Berry, Jake [Probable supporter]
Former northern powerhouse minister who backed Boris Johnson in 2019, albeit who has been critical of the government in the past.   He would narrowly lose his Rossendale and Darwen seat to Labour under current levels of opinion polling. However he recently told the Northern Agenda that Boris Johnson “still gets it right” on the big calls and remains “a good leader”.

Bhatti, Saqib [Probable supporter]
Former Vote Leave board member, first elected for the safe seat of Meriden in 2019.  Hasn’t made any particularly notable public comments on partygate, but one of the first of the 2019 intake of MPs to be appointed by Boris as a government PPS. On the day of the issue of a fixed penalty notice to the PM, he tweeted to say the PM and Chancellor were right to apologise by ‘they must be allowed to get on with the job’.

Browne, Anthony [Probable supporter]
Former Director of Economic Development for Boris Johnson during his time as London mayor.  Would lose his South Cambridgeshire seat to the Liberal Democrats based on current polling levels. At the same time as stating, that those ‘who make the rules need to obey the rules’, he has welcomed the prime minister’s plans to reform Downing Street.

Buchan, Felicity [Probable supporter]
Kensington MP who possesses the second smallest Conservative majority at Wesminster.  Did not initially appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future, but provided support to the PM in an April debate in the Commons.

Burghart, Alex [Probable supporter]
Junior education minister, and former PPS to Boris Johnson in No.10 between 2019 and 2021.  Has not made any notable public comments on the partygate affair.  Assumed to back the PM.

Cash, Bill [Probable supporter]
Veteran MP now in his eighties.  He has dedicated much of his political career to opposing the European Union.  Backed Boris in the 2019 contest.  Recently appeared supportive to the PM in the House of Commons.

Chope, Christopher [Probable supporter]
Independently minded veteran MP from Christchurch. On the right of the party.  Recently praised Johnson’s ‘fulsome apology’ over partygate.

Clarke, Theodora [Probable supporter]
Would narrowly retain her Stafford seat in any election held on current polling.  On the One Nation wing of the party. She has not made any particularly notable public comment on partygate. Niece by marriage of Jacob Rees-Mogg and is reported to have been a good friend of the prime minister’s wife Carrie for over 10 years. Recently announced she is expecting her first child.

Cox, Geoffrey [Probable supporter]
Former Attorney General at the centre of outside earnings storm in 2021.  Supported Boris Johnson in 2019 and seen previously as something of a Johnson ally.  He has not though made any particularly notable public comments on partygate.

Crouch, Tracey [Probable supporter]
Independently minded MP, who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election.  A fellow animal welfare campaigner, she is said to be a long standing friend of the prime minister’s wife.  Crouch has been reported in the Daily Mail as saying that Carrie was hugely supportive of her recent cancer battle and ‘made a point of remembering all her treatment dates and sending a message’.  On partygate, Crouch has said that she is happy to wait for the outcome of the independent investigation provided it isn’t ‘delayed’ and is ‘published in full’. Accompanied the PM on a visit to a football club in her constituency in February 2022, and has said that outside of the Westminster bubble, Boris still has appeal.

Davies, Mims  [Probable supporter]
Brexiter, and junior Minister who backed Boris Johnson in the later stages of the 2019 leadership election. Has recognized the public anger caused over partygate, but has not gone further in criticizing the PM.  She has said, “MPs heard the Prime minister rightly and sincerely offer a heartfelt apologies to the House of Commons Chamber and the nation at PMQs. He personally took responsibility, as he has for all matters at this time of dealing with this devastating pandemic and unprecedented economic challenge”.

Donelan, Michelle [Probable supporter]
Universities minister who was promoted by Johnson to attend Cabinet.  Her Chippenham seat is not out of the reach of the Lib Dems. Told BBC Radio 4’s Any Questions that she was ‘angry’ about events in Downing Street but has pointed to other government achievements such as the growing economy and the jobs available. Did back the PM on Twitter on the day he received his fixed penalty notice, but interestingly was amongst one of the last cabinet ministers to do so.

Drax, Richard [Probable supporter]
Reportedly one of the richest MPs. Brexiter who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest. Weclomed the reshuffle in early February 2022, and said he expected a ‘stream of blue narrative Conservative policies’ to burst out of No.10.

Eastwood, Mark [Probable supporter]
2019 Red Wall victor, whose marginal Dewsbury seat would be comfortably regained by Labour in any election based on current opinion polls. Has previously commented that he was waiting for the Gray report before making any comment on the future of Mr Johnson. However after the PM was issued with a fixed penalty notice he appeared to offer more support, being quoted in the Yorkshire Examiner as saying, “People do not typically resign upon receiving a fixed penalty notice”.

Fletcher, Katherine [Probable supporter]
Red Wall MP elected for South Ribble in 2019, and one who may narrowly retain her seat in any election based on current opinion poll levels.  Has said that many of her constituents thought the PM had been a ‘wally’, but given that “100,000 Russians have showed up” on Ukraine’s borders, they’re wondering why everyone is “talking about cake”…..

Fletcher, Nick [Probable supporter]
Red Wall MP elected for Don Valley in 2019, but who would lose the seat to Labour in any election held on current polling. In February told the Yorkshire Post that, “I do not believe a leadership election, at this time, is the best thing for the country.”

Hollinrake, Kevin [Probable supporter]
Backed Michael Gove in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.   Previously has commented that he didn’t think the PM had lied to Parliament, and in February issued a statement to say that the PM currently has his support.  Has also been on the airwaves.  He left in the caveat that he will review his position following the conclusion of the police investigation, but on the day of the fixed penalty notice being issued tweeted, ‘No doubt mistakes made, but don’t believe they merit a resignation of the PM or Chancellor’. The day after the police issued the PM with a fixed penalty notice, he wrote on Twitter, ‘Big difference between knowlingly and inadvertently misleading the house’.

Hughes, Eddie [Probable supporter]
Junior minister promoted by the PM.  Brexiter who backed Boris Johnson in the later stages of the 2019 Conservative leadership election. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Jayawardena, Ranil [Probable supporter]
Ambitious junior minister with a safe seat in rural Hampshire. Supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate.

Jenkyns, Andrea [Probable supporter]
Previously wrote a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. Brexiter who backed Boris in the later stages of the 2019 leadership election. The result in her Morley and Outwood constituency would be on a knife edge at current opinion poll levels. Has not made any notable public comment on ‘partygate’, but having been recently appointed to the whips office is assumed to be behind the PM.

Johnson, Gareth [Probable supporter]
Government whip, who supported his namesake in the 2019 conservative leadership election.  Has not made any notable public comment on partygate. 

Jones, Fay [Probable supporter]
Once worked as a researcher for Prince Charles. Gained her Brecon and Radnor seat off the Liberal Democrats in 2019.  Would narrowly hold it if an election was held today based on current opinion  poll levels.  Has described the alleged rule breaking as ‘abysmal’, but has not publicly made any comments questioning the PM’s position. On the day that the PM was fined, wrote on Twitter, ‘Today’s revelations from the Met simply follow on from the PM accepting responsibility, accepting and implementing change’.

Jones, Marcus [Probable supporter]
Has been given a senior role within the government whips office by Boris.  Has not made any notable public comment on partygate, but working in the whips office is assumed for now to back the PM.

Kruger, Danny [Probable supporter]
Former speech writer for David Cameron and one time political secretary to Boris Johnson. Elected to Westminster in 2019 for Devizes in Wiltshire. Initially it appeared that he might be turning on his former boss. In a statement on his website, he wrote that he was sorry that so many “lifelong Conservative voters” have decided they cannot vote for us again while Boris Johnson is leader. Continuing he wrote: “They represent the respectable tendency which is the foundation of our party and indeed our country: the people who believe in following the rules, being straight with people and being accountable for your conduct. It is a very bad moment when so many people like this lose faith in a Conservative prime minister”. However on the day that the PM received a fixed penalty notice, he appeared to have softened his approach, writing on Twitter, ‘But if this is it – the PM being given a birthday cake by colleagues in his office, at a no doubt awkward gathering lasting less than 10 minutes – then of course he mustn’t resign’. He has since supported the PM in the Commons debate of 21st April saying of the PM, that “patently he didn’t break the law deliberately”.

MacKinlay, Craig [Probable supporter]
One time deputy leader of UKIP who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.   Based on current opinion poll levels would experience a  knife edge result with Labour in his Thanet South seat on the Kent coast.  Suggested that Mr Johnson has been ‘found wanting’ over the partygate affair, but has supported the government on the airwaves recently, and confirmed he has not sent in a letter of no confidence. He was quoted in the Daily Telegraph as saying, “Time is a great healer – we’re talking about events that were two years ago. They’ve lost their potency now”.

McPartland, Stephen [Probable supporter]
Independently minded MP who has been prepared to vote against the government in the past.  Backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Recently praised the PM on Twitter for calling the Labour leader a ‘lawyer not a leader’.  He has also stated that the Conservatives “were getting on with the job”. Would lose his Stevenage seat to Labour if an election was held today based on current opinion poll levels.

Marson, Julie [Probable supporter]
Hertforshire MP elected in 2019. Previously wrote on Facebook that she was ‘appalled’ by events at Downing Street.   She has been quoted recently in her local Bishop Stortford Independent newspaper saying that Boris Johnson enjoys her ‘full support’, albeit she has left it out there, that she wants to see the results of the ‘ongoing police investigation’. Reportedly has a blonde cockapoo pet dog called Boris.

Mumby-Croft, Holly [Probable supporter]
Independent minded MP for Scunthorpe, elected in 2019.  She voted for the extension of the free school meals scheme.  Would comfortably lose her seat to Labour if an election was held on the back of current polling.   Has called for the political debate to move beyond the partygate affairs albeit has acknowledged that ‘we must now wait for the police to finish their investigation without interference’.

Norman, Jesse [Probable supporter]
Left the government in 2021.  School friend of Boris Johnson.  Served as an advisor to Boris during his time as London mayor.  Has been quiet over partygate but without evidence to the contrary, is assumed to still support his old friend.

O’Brien, Neil [Probable supporter]
The first from the 2019 batch of newly elected MPs to be appointed to the government by the PM,  which certainly counts as notable recognition from Mr Johnson.  Previously the PM’s levelling up advisor.   Has so far just given the flat response of ‘closely following developments’ and ‘having concern’ over partygate.

Opperman, Guy [Probable supporter]
Hexham MP and junior minister who supported Michael Gove in the 2019 conservative leadership election.   Tragically his new born baby twins died during the pandemic, and he was unable to go and see his wife in hospital.  This was at the time of some of the alleged events in Downing Street.   He told the BBC in relation to partygate that, “I feel pretty emotional about this”.  In statements that have gone much further than most government ministers he said the PM “needed to change his ways”.  The result in his Hexham seat would be on a knife edge at the current level of Conservative opinion polling. In April 2022, after the PM was issued with a fixed penalty notice, he was though making more supportive noises. In a long twitter statement he said the PM had his support.

Quin, Jeremy [Probable supporter]
Defence Minister.  Responded to partygate by saying, “The prime minister was absolutely right to apologise very clearly in PMQs. There is a full investigation into the allegations and I am keen for it to complete its work as soon as possible.”

Rutley, David [Probable supporter]
Junior minister and Cheshire MP.  Is quoted on Cheshire Live as saying, Boris Johnson has taken’full responsibility’ for the No 10 party and said he was right to apologise.

Saxby, Selaine [Probable supporter]
Devon MP, elected in 2019. Has been quoted in her local North Devon Gazette as saying she was ‘very disappointed’ at what happened in No.10, but at the moment she does not think ‘this is the right moment to initiate a ‘No Confidence’ vote in the Prime Minister’.

Smith, Royston [Probable supporter]
Brexiter who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative leadership election. Would comfortably lose his Southampton Itchen seat to Labour based on the current levels of Conservative polling.  Has previously expressed interest in who is behind all the government leaks.  Although waiting for the findings of the various inquiries, appears to be giving some support to the PM, having been quoted in the Southern Daily Echo as saying, “The prime minister needs to explain what he knows, apologise if necessary and move on. I think most people would have understood that”.

Stewart, Iain [Probable supporter]
Junior Scottish Office minister who backed Michael Gove in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Would lose his Milton Keynes South seat to Labour in any General election based on the current levels of opinion polls. Does not appear to have commented publicly on the PM’s future, but did retweet something welcoming the appointment of Guto Harri as the PMs new spin doctor. In February, he also told the Scotsman newspaper that it was nonsense that the PM was not welcome in Scotland.

Swayne, Desmond [Probable supporter]
Veteran MP and lockdown sceptic from the New Forest.  He sits on the right of the Conservative party and is an arch lockdown sceptic.   Has previously detailed his “extreme concern” over “this very sorry state of affairs”. However after Johnson announced all covid restricitons would soon end, he appeared more positive. Speaking on 10th February, he said he was personally clear that the PM ‘was not a liar’ and that he did not accept the rather dodgy premise that Johnson is ‘limping along’. After the police issued a fine, he did though add, I will not be making any comment until I have the PM’s own expanation’.

Tomlinson, Michael [Probable supporter]
Government whip who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership contest. Has not made any notable public comment on ‘partygate’, but as part of the whips office is assumed to be behind the PM.

Tracey, Craig [Probable supporter]
Brexiter who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership contest. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate. However he retweeted a tweet from the Media Guido account which asked why cake-gate now threatened to bring down the government, when the Times newspaper first revealed it over a year ago.  This may thus be a ‘useful tell’ as to where Mr Tracey sits on current matters.

Vickers, Matt [Probable supporter]
Elected in 2019, but would comfortably lose his Stockton South seat to Labour based on current opinion poll levels.  Former constituency agent to Rishi Sunak.   Appears publicly supportive of the PM having told Channel 4 that ‘Teesside’s got a lot to be happy about’.

Vickers, Martin [Probable supporter]
Brexiter who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.   He told the Observer that he despaired at the ‘management structure’ in Downing Street such that the events under investigation could have occurred.  He has also claimed that the PM should have left the Downing Street garden in May 2020 as soon as he arrived. He has though also claimed this is not the right time for a leadership election.

Villiers, Theresa [Probable supporter]
Former long standing cabinet minister who was dismissed from the Cabinet in 2020.  Brexiter who backed Boris in 2019.  Her increasingly marginal Chipping Barnet seat would almost certainly be lost to Labour in any election based on today’s polling results.  Has though praised the PM for his work on the vaccination programme and said in the Commons that anyone ‘taking a view’ on the PM ‘must’ take that into account.

Walker, Robin [Probable supporter]
Junior minister who supported Sajid Javid in the 2019 leadership election.  Like his father, the one time Cabinet minister and former MP for Worcester, Peter Walker, he sits on the left of the Conservative party.   Would lose his Worcester seat to Labour in any election that mirrored current opinion poll numbers.  Has though reacted moderately to the partygate affair saying, “I think some of the political attacks are trying to imply this was going deliberately behind people’s backs and laughing at people – I don’t think that is what it was”.  Suggesting that some of the wilder accusations will turn out not to be true, he told Worcester News that, “It was motivated by trying to keep morale up of staff who were working very hard through the pandemic. It is right they have accepted what happened was not right”.

Webb, Suzanne [Probable supporter]
Midlands MP for Stourbridge, elected in 2019.  Said in the Commons, after the Gray Report, that, “Those opposite, have used up far too much parliamentary time debating this. After the PM was issued with a fine, told her local ‘Express and Star’ that it was right the PM ‘apologised’ but that the PM was rightly focussed on global leadership following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Whately, Helen [Probable supporter]
Media savvy ambitious junior minister at the treasury under Rishi Sunak.  Kent MP who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership campaign.  Initially made little notable public comment on partygate, but when her boss Rishi Sunak and the PM were issued police fines, she joined other ministers on Twitter to confirm that both still enjoyed her support.

Wiggin, Bill [Probable Supporter]
Long standing MP from Herefordshire.  Backed Boris in the 2019 contest. At the start of February 2022, he told Talk Radio that he didn’t feel the time had yet been reached to change leader, and that, “My view is that Boris is doing what he is supposed to do.”

Wild, James [Probable supporter]
Elected in 2019. Has publicly commented that he is not calling on the PM to quit at this stage. Married to Baroness Evans who sits in the Johnson cabinet as leader of the House of Lords

Wood, Mike [Probable supporter]
Midlands MP who backed Boris in the later part of the 2019 leadership election and is a government PPS.  Previously suggested that the Gray report would need to show that the PM took clear and deliberate actions to mislead Parliament for anything to ‘fundamentally’ change for Mr Johnson. Told the Birmingham Mail in April that he does not intend to submit a letter of no confidence.

__________________________________________________

Block 6 – Publicly backing the PM

Adams, Nigel [Publicly backing the PM]
Minister without portfolio who was recently appointed to attend Cabinet.  Backed Boris in 2019, having wanted him to stand in 2016.   Regarded as part of Johnson’s inner circle.

Afriyie, Adam  [Publicly backing the PM]
MP for the safe seat of Windsor.  Once considered a stalking horse to David Cameron, but does not appear to have such ‘beef’ with Boris.   Has responded moderately to the partygate affair, quoted in the Maidenhead Advertiser as saying, “People are rightly concerned about all the rumours about parties and the prime minister was right to explain and apologise”, before adding, “He has done wonders for this country with our vaccine rollout and keeping people in work and he has my full support in levelling up our country”.

Allan, Lucy [Probable supporter]
Shropshire MP whose Telford seat would be subject to a close result with Labour at current polling levels.   PPS to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Ms Allan had previously described the PM’s position as ‘terminal’ in a letter to a constituent, but has since rowed back saying that is no longer the case. Following his intervention, Ms Allan criticised the former Conservative PM leader Sir John Major, saying in a tweet: “Trying to remove an elected PM with a huge personal mandate, mid-term, is anti-democratic”.

Anderson, Stuart [Publicly backing the PM]
Red Wall MP who won Wolverhampton South in 2019, but who would easily lose the seat in any election based on current polling.  Has been active on the airwaves in publicly supporting the prime minister, and believes he will win the next election. Has continued to offer the PM his support after the issuing of a Fixed Penalty Notice.

Argar, Edward [Publicly backing the PM]
Health minister through the pandemic.  Backed Johnson in the later stages of the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Has been defending the PM on the airwaves including a heated exchange on ITVs’ Good Morning Britain.

Bacon, Richard [Publicly backing the PM]
Norfolk MP, who supported Michael Gove rather than Johnson in 2019.   Independently minded.  One of the few MPs who once supported a motion of no confidence in former Commons Speaker, Michael Martin. However in February he came out fighting for Boris Johnson, telling Newsnight that the prime minister has done a “really good job” in “probably the greatest crisis we have faced in over a hundred years”.

Baynes, Simon [Publicly backing the PM]
MP for Clwyd South elected in 2019.  Initially in a joint statement with his neighbouring Wrexham MP, he said that he welcomed the PM’s apology but that it was ‘not appropriate’ to make judgements until the findings of the Metropolitan Police Investigation’ were known.  Has though since tweeted that the appointment of Guto Harri as the government’s new Director of Comms was great news and signs of how far and fast the PM was moving. After the issue of a fixed penalty notice to the PM, he tweeted to say, ‘The matter has been appropriately dealt with and now we should let him continue to provide the outstanding leadership he has shown through the Ukraine crisis’.

Barclays, Stephen [Publicly backing the PM]
Cabinet minister, recently appointed chief of staff in Number 10.  Backed Johnson in 2019.

Blunt, Crispin [Publicly backing the PM]
Veteran and independently minded MP for Reigate.  Supported Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest.  Has previously suggested that in many homes and businesses the Covid rules may have been broken. Told the BBC that it is his “departure point” that the allegations levelled at Boris Johnson are not enough to topple a prime minister.

Bone, Peter [Publicly backing the PM]
Sometimes outspoken social conservative.  Backed Boris in the 2019 leadership contest. Still behind the prime minister having recently defended him on ITV’s Good Morning Britain.  Has accused the media of “trying to take the prime minister down over a piece of cake”.  Told LBC that he found his constituents were in ‘support’ of the prime minister. On the day that the PM received a police fine, tweeted to say that Boris ‘is an exceptional PM’ who ‘got Brexit done, took us through the Covid pandemic, and is now leading Europe’s response to the war in Ukraine’. He reaffirmed his ‘100% support’ for Boris.

Braverman, Suella [Publicly backing the PM]
Attorney General in the government.  Brexiter who backed Boris Johnson in 2019.  Praised the PM recently writing, “Got Brexit done. World-beating vaccine roll-out. 400,000 more jobs than pre-Covid. Keeping schools open & children learning. Building back better for all. All thanks to the leadership of Boris Johnson”.  We can assume she is still very much on side.

Bristow, Paul [Publicly backing the PM]
Former lobbyist, who would comfortably lose his Peterborough seat to Labour if there was an election based on current polling. Was quoted in the Daily Mirror as saying that he had left a Commons backbench meeting with the Prime minister on Monday night, ‘absolutely pumped’ and that nobody had called for Mr Johnson to go.

Burns, Conor [Publicly backing the PM]
Northern Ireland minister who was PPS to Boris Johnson when he was foreign secretary.  Self described friend of the PM, and arguably the most visible face on the media currently defending Boris Johnson.  Suggested that Boris was ‘ambushed by a cake’ at one Downing Street gathering.   Election night in his Bournemouth West seat would certainly be uncomfortable, if not yet terminal, at current polling levels.

Clarke-Smith, Brendan [Publicly backing the PM]
Red wall Conservative MP for Bassetlaw.  Won the seat in 2019 and may still retain it based on current opinion poll levels.  Brexiter, on the right of the Conservative party.  Recently praised the PM for his ‘fantastic’ performance at PMQs. On the day that Boris received his fixed penalty notice, took to Twitter to point to a number of fixed penalty notices received for traffic offences by opposition MPs. Can be regarded as a vigorous Boris supporter.

Clarke, Simon [Publicly backing the PM]
Cabinet minister from Teeside.  Once submitted a letter of no confidence in Theresa May.  Boris Johnson loyalist, who told Teeside Live that he absolutely stood by the PM, describing him as a “fantastic force for good in areas of the north”.

Clarkson, Chris [Publicly backing the PM]
Red Wall MP who has a majority of just 663 in Heywood and Middleton.  Seen as being on the left of the Conservative party. Following recent staff departures in Downing Street, tweeted, “Earlier this week the PM promised the parliamentary party swift and decisive change at No.10 to get us back on course and focused on people’s priorities – pleased to see true to his word he’s delivering”. Backed the PM on Twitter on the day the PM received a fixed penalty notice.

Cleverly, James [Publicly backing the PM]
Recently appointed Europe minister, who served on the London Assembly when Boris was mayor.  Backed Johnson in the 2019 contest.  Has defended the PM on the airwaves saying he is focused on the job.

Coffey, Therese [Publicly backing the PM]
Cabinet minister who backed Boris in the 2019 contest.   Has described Johnson’s apology as ‘sincere’ and said that the PM has worked ‘tirelessly’ to tackle covid striving to protect lives and livelihoods.

Collins, Damian [Publicly backing the PM]
Remainer representing Folkestone in Kent.  Chair of a commons select committee (normally it seems a sign of trouble for the PM in terms of this list), this time on culture.  He backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election. He was recently quoted in Kent Online as saying, “I will decide what to do when we have all seen that report. I also hope that everyone in government reflects on the need for public confidence”. The day after the PM was fined by the police, he appeared to have become more supportive, breaking cover early on Twitter to state, “The parties are over and it’s time to get on with the job. He has my full support”.

Courts, Robert [Publicly backing the PM]
Junior transport minister who backed Boris in the 2019 contest.  Has defended the PM on the airwaves, telling the BBC that it was important for the country to “rally behind” what the Prime minister has achieved during his premiership.

Davies, David [Publicly backing the PM]
Wales Office minster who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest.  Has publicly said the PM has his confidence.   The result in his Monmouth seat would be tight if an election was held based on current opinion poll levels. After the issuing of the police fines to the PM and Chancellor, he commented on Twitter that it was ‘Time to move on’.

Dines, Sarah [Publicly backing the PM]
PPS to Boris Johnson and his parliamentary ‘bag carrier’ in the House of Commons.  One MP you can assume he can count on.

Docherty, Leo [Publicly backing the PM]
Junior defence minister. Former army officer who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Has been reported as calling David Davis a ‘traitor’ for his Commons attack on the PM.

Dorries, Nadine [Publicly backing the PM]
Cuture secretary. Long standing Johnson loyalist who actively supports the PM on radio and TV.  He can count on her support come what may.

Double, Steve [Publicly backing the PM]
Appointed to the government whips office by Boris Johnson in 2021.  Previously submitted a letter of no confidence, but it was in 2018, against Theresa May. Remains supportive of Boris.  Following the Gray Report, told Cornwall Live that, “Whilst the report is critical of some of what took place I do not see anything in it that means the PM should resign. He has committed to change the things recommended in the report and I believe he should be allowed to make these changes”. Issued a statement after the issuing of fixed penalty notices to say the PM, ‘continues to have my full support’.

Dowden, Oliver [Publicly backing the PM]
Appointed Conservative party chairman by Boris Johnson and has been defending the PM on the airwaves.   Previously worked in Downing Street for David Cameron.  Supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.

Duddridge, James [Publicly backing the PM]
Former junior foreign office minister from Southend East who left the government in 2021 but was appointed as a PPS to Boris Johnson in 2022.  Backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election. Has suggested MPs in Westminster have lost the plot telling Sky News, “People say to me ‘for God’s sake, tell Boris just to get on and run the country. That’s what’s needed”. One of the first Conservative MPs to back the PM on Twitter after he received a fixed penalty notice.

Ellis, Michael [Publicly backing the PM]
Newly appointed minister for the cabinet office and paymaster general in the government, who has defended Boris Johnson at the Commons dispatch box saying the ‘Prime minister is going nowhere’.  Supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election, and on Twitter gave the PM his ‘100% support’ after the police fine.  Would lose his Northampton North seat to Labour in any General election reflecting the current opinion poll levels.

Eustice, George [Publicly backing the PM]
Environment secretary who has been supportive of the PM on the airwaves. Considered a Johnson loyalist. Initially backed Michael Gove in the 2019 leadership election.  Would lose his Camborne and Redruth seat in Cornwall to Labour if a general election was held on the basis of current opinion poll levels.

Fabricant, Michael [Publicly backing the PM]
Long standing MP who backed Michael Gove in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Previously voted against John Major and Theresa May in no confidence votes, but not this time…  He has praised the PM for delivering Brexit and the best vaccination programme in Europe, saying of Johnson, “He delivers and has my full support.” After the police fine, he described the situation as ‘grim’ but added that Boris Johnson is “not the sort of guy” to lie to the public. Fabricant has said he does not believe the PM mislead parliament.

Firth, Anna [Publicly backing the PM]
The Conservative party’s newest MP, having been elected in February 2022 to succeed Sir David Amess in Southend West.  Commenting on the PM in relation to her election campaign, she is quoted as saying in the Southend Echo that, “The people I spoke to feel he is being victimised and there is a vendetta to bring Boris down.”

Fox, Liam [Publicly backing the PM]
Former Conservative party chairman and GP.  Brexiter, who backed Jeremy Hunt rather than Boris in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.   Previously said he was ‘extremely cross’ and ‘upset’ at the allegations albeit wanted the PM to stay on.  Post the publication of the Gray report has urged fellow Conservatives to get on with the big issues, calling for political stability and saying this was not the time for a leadership election.

Fuller, Richard [Publicly backing the PM]
Member of the Tory Reform Group, who sits on the left of the Conservative party.  Has said he doesn’t like the phrase ‘Big Dog’, but otherwise told the Bedford Independent that, “I believe the prime minister does understand the hurt that has been caused and that, as he said today, he accepts the need for significant change. This must now be done. I believe it is right that he is given the opportunity to implement those changes and to continue to lead the country.”

Gibson, Peter [Publicly backing the PM]
Red Wall MP elected in 2019, who would likely lose his Darlington seat to Labour if an election reflected current opinion poll levels.  Unlike some of the supposed ‘pork pie’ plotters from nearby constituencies, he is seen as actively supporting the PM.  After recent Downing Street staff departures, tweeted, “Great to see the change that Boris Johnson promised in Downing Street being delivered.”

Goodwill, Robert [Publicly backing the PM]
Former minister, who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.   Former MEP.  After the publication of the Gray report, and again after the police issued a fixed penalty notice, he confirmed to his local Scarborough News that the prime minister still had his support, adding “It’s not in the interests of the country for this to drag on”. His Scarborough and Whitby seat would be in the balance at the current level of opinion polling.

Gove, Michael [Publicly backing the PM]
Levelling up secretary and long standing cabinet minister.  Has been backing the prime minister on the airwaves and there have also been media reports that he has been out ringing MPs to sure up support for the PM.  Other reports have suggested that he has been out again on “leadership maneovures”, despite his two previous failed bids.

Griffith, Andrew [Publicly backing the PM]
Former Sky TV finance director, who was appointed as minister for policy by Boris Johnson in February 2022.   Johnson loyalist who lent Boris use of his Westminster house in the 2019 leadership campaign.  Has a safe seat in West Sussex.

Gullis, Jonathan [Publicly backing the PM]
Brexiter. Red Wall MP for Stoke on Trent North.  Based on current opinion polling, Labour would likely regain his seat in any general election held today.  Is though a loyal supporter of the PM who has previously suggested on Twitter that those who had submitted no confidence letters were now withdrawing them.

Halfon, Robert [Publicly backing the PM]
Independent minded MP, who backed Sajid Javid in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election. Has claimed that everyone has been ‘let down’ by the partygate affair, but has been quoted in the Daily Express as saying he is not ‘agitating’ for the Prime minister’s removal, saying that to change a government in the midst of a pandemic would be folly. He also has said that the public would not respect us for this bloodletting.  Supporting the PM he said, “I feel I owe Boris some residual loyalty. He won the 2019 election, got Brexit done and rolled out a worldbeating vaccine and booster programme. Even after Covid, our economy is growing strongly and the jobs miracle has returned”.

Hancock, Matthew [Publicly backing the PM]
Former high profile health secretary who resigned from the government in 2021.   Commenting on partygate he told Sky News that ‘ultimately the government has got the big calls right’ and that he still thinks Boris Johnson has the ‘moral authority’ to lead the country. Gave the PM his backing once again after Johnson was fined by the police.

Hands, Greg [Publicly backing the PM]
Business minister.  On the free market right of the Conservative party.  Backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Has though been on the airwaves backing the PM and saying he was ‘taking charge’ after committing to changes following the Gray Report.

Harrison, Trudy [Publicly backing the PM]
Junior transport minister.  Former PPS to Boris Johnson.  Would lose her Copeland seat to Labour based on current opinion poll levels. Has not commented on the partygate affair aside from to claim that she herself did not attend any parties.  Given her role for a number of years as part of Johnson’s inner circle in Downing Street, he is assumed to back the PM. After the PM and Chancellor received a fixed penalty notice she was quoted in Cumbria Crack as saying, I support them in continuing getting on with the job in hand”.

Heappey, James [Publicly backing the PM]
Defence minister, whose Wells seat in Somerset would be on the brink of being won by the Liberal Democrats at current opinion poll levels. Backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Was himself a former PPS to Johnson in Number 10.  He has defended the PM on the airwaves saying he has a hectic schedule bouncing around from one thing to another in “5 minute blocks”.  Has said he wants Boris to lead the party into the next election.

Heaton-Harris, Chris [Publicly backing the PM]
The new government chief whip.   Brexiter who supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  Even before his appointment, he was reported in the media as being active trying to shore up support for the PM within the parliamentary party.

Hinds, Damian [Publicly backing the PM]
Home office minister, who actually previously resigned from the Cabinet when Boris Johnson first became prime minister.   Supported Michael Gove in the 2019 leadership contest.  However he was more recently brought back into the government by Johnson.   Has said he has been ‘shocked’ by the allegations but has defended the record of the PM on the airwaves telling ITV’s GMTV in January that he still had confidence in the PM. He told his local ‘Petersfield Post’ that he was still backing the PM despite the fixed penalty notice issued by the police.

Holloway, Adam [Publicly backing the PM]
Brexiter who backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative party leadership election.  Quoted in the Guardian describing the PM as “a really remarkable guy, who got an 80-seat majority”.  Says  that he believed the PM when he said he “didn’t know it was a party” Mr Holloway has commented in relation to the debate about the PM’s future that ‘I don’t believe in trial by television’. For those who don’t know, he was once a former TV reporter himself with ITN.

Jack, Alister [Publicly backing the PM]
Secretary of state for Scotland. Would be in danger of losing his Dumfries and Galloway seat to the SNP if an election was held based on current opinion polls.  Has previously commented in relation to partygate that ‘when the cat’s away, the mice were playing’ and has described Boris as an ‘excellent prime minister’.

Javid, Sajid [Publicly backing the PM]
Health secretary and former chancellor.  Has been defending the Prime minister on the airwaves over the last month, and comfirms that the PM has his support. A potential successor if Mr Johnson was to fall.

Jenkinson, Mark [Publicly backing the PM]
Brexiter and red wall MP who gained Workington in 2019, but who would comfortably lose the seat to Labour  in any general election held on the basis of current opinion poll levels.   Tweeted to say that both he, and the majority of his constituents, are behind the PM and that this is an ‘exciting period for Britain’.  Told ITV news that he didn’t think he would be being asked about the future of a PM in relation to a fixed penalty notice, if the notice was say, for parking a car on a red line. On the day that the PM received a fine, tweeted that Boris Johnson ‘is the de facto leader of the free world’.

Jenrick, Robert [Publicly backing the PM]
Former cabinet minister who was sacked by Boris in a 2021 reshuffle.  Was previously quoted by Lincolnshire Live as saying that he continued to support the prime minister, and that there was neither an internal nor external threat to Mr Johnson’s position. Reiterated his support for the PM during an interview on BBC Radio 4’s ‘World at One’ the day after the issuing of a fixed penatly notice, saying the PM had got the big calls right.

Johnson, Boris [Publicly backing the PM]
One MP we can have absolute certainty on.

Kwarteng, Kwasi [Publicly backing the PM]
Business secretary and long time Boris Johnson ally.  Has defended the PM on the airwaves saying that he does not accept that it is ‘inevitable’ that Mr Johnson will be forced to quit.

Leigh, Edward [Publicly backing the PM]
Veteran MP on the right of the Conservative party.  Backed Michael Gove in the 2019 leadership election. Issued a statement in February that said, “Given the grave problems facing us nationally and internationally, I don’t think there is anything to be gained by replacing the prime minister at the present time, nor do I think it is a proportionate response to events that took place in the prime minister’s house with his own colleagues.

Lewis, Brandon [Publicly backing the PM]
Secretary of state for Northern Ireland.  Has backed the PM on the airwaves claiming he is sincere in his apology and that, ‘we have got the right person leading the country’.

Longhi, Marco [Publicly backing the PM]
Brexiter who gained his Dudley North seat with a big majority in 2019.  Even on current polls could potentially hold the seat in any general election held today,. Has not commented publicly on partygate but did retweet a message from fellow Midlands MPs and Boris backer, Stuart Anderson, in which he urged MPs to ‘get on with the job’. On the day the PM received a fixed penalty notice, he tweted to say, ‘The PM has my full support’. Told his local ‘Express and Star’ that the Labour party were ‘scared’ of Boris.

Maclean, Rachel [Publicly backing the PM]
Conservative MP for Redditch who supported Michael Gove in the 2019 Conservative leadership election. Has defended the PM on the airwaves, telling the BBC’s Politics Live show that, “No, of course I don’t think he should resign. This is clearly an opposition-driven campaign.”

Malthouse, Kit [Publicly backing the PM]
Policing minister.  Formerly deputy Mayor of London under Boris Johnson between 2008 and 2016.  Has publicly tweeted support for the PM saying that he has ‘delivered’.

Mann, Scott [Publicly backing the PM]
Government whip. Brexiter who backed Johnson in the later part of the 2019 Conservative leadership election. Quoted in Cornwall Live as saying of the Gray Report that, “Whilst the report is critical of some of what took place I do not see anything in it that means the PM should resign”.

McCartney, Jason [Publicly backing the PM]
Independently minded MP who has rebelled against the government in the past. His Colne Valley seat would comfortably be lost to Labour if an election was held today based on current opinion poll levels.  Has previously told the Yorkshire Post that the PM was a politician who ‘manages to break through all that bland and sterile sort of politics and connect with people’, saying in January that the PM still had his backing. After the PM received a fixed penalty fine, he was quoted in the Yorkshire Examiner as drawing a parallel between Mr Johnson and other local people who had been fined for Covid breaches, suggesting that none of them had lost their jobs.

McCartney, Karl [Publicly backing the PM]
Former magistrate.  Brexiter. His Lincoln seat would be comfortably lost to Labour if an election was held today based on current opinion poll levels.  From his Twitter activity, he appears to be backing the PM.   In February, McCartney told BBC Radio Lincolnshire that the partygate issue was not coming up on the doorsteps, adding that people want the government to ‘get on with the job’, and that this is what Boris Johnson and everybody else in government are doing. Confirmed on Twitter after the police fines were issued, that the PM still continues to have his ‘full support’.

Milling, Amanda [Actively backing the PM]
Foreign office minister, and former Conservative party chair who worked closely with the PM for a couple of years.  Supported Boris in the 2019 leadership election. After the fixed penalty notice was issued she wrote on Twitter, “The PM’s the right person to lead the country and focus on getting on with the job of delivering for the British people and protecting Ukraine from the tyranny of Russia”.

Morris, David [Actively backing the PM]
Accomplished song writer who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership contest.  Would comfortably lose his Morecambe and Lunesdale seat to Labour if an election was held on the back of current polling.  Does though appear to be backing the PM, suggesting that a ‘beer party’ attended by Keir Starmer is something that the police should consider looking at. Suggested in the Commons that Boris is ‘leading the world against Putin’.

Morris, James [Actively backing the PM]
Government whip.  Backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership election.  He is quoted in his local Halesowen News as welcoming the PM’s response to the Gray inquiry, and was seen praising him for his ‘strong leadership’.

Morrissey, Joy [Actively backing the PM]
Elected in 2019 for the safe seat of Beaconsfield.  In the aftermath of Downing Street staff departures, tweeted her support saying, “The PM promised changes to the No10 operation earlier this week, glad to see him delivering tonight”. Recently appointed a PPS to the PM.

Morton, Wendy [Actively backing the PM]
Transport minister who supported Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership election. Does not appear to have made any notable public comment on partygate, but was promoted to Minister of State in the February 2022 government reshuffle. Soon after the PM was issued a fixed penalty notice she tweted to say, ‘We need to stay focussed on Ukraine and delivering for the people of the UK. He is the right person to do this for our country’.

Murrison, Andrew [Actively backing the PM]
Former surgeon commander in the Royal Navy. Backed Boris in the 2019 Conservative leadership election, and in his abortive 2016 bid.  Writing in the Guardian, he has accepted that the men in grey suits could call time on the PM’s premiership, but describes himself as a ‘serial Boris supporter.

Nici, Lia [Actively backing the PM]
Red Wall MP for Great Grimsby.  Seen as a staunch defender of the PM who lent some support on Radio 5 Live to the PMs attack on Sir Keir Starmer in relation to his time at the Crown Prosecution Service.  Just appointed as a PPS to the PM. Opinion polls suggest she may narrowly retain her seat if there was a general election held today.

Patel, Priti [Publicly backing the PM]
Home Secretary who was appointed and has been subsequently defended by Boris Johnson.  Is seen as a strong Boris ally.

Philp, Chris [Publicly backing the PM]
Junior minister, who backed Sajid Javid in the 2019 Conservative leadership election.  He has defended the prime minister previously, telling the BBC in January that, “The reason that the prime minister initiated an investigation with an impartial civil servant with such a high reputation is to make sure all of the facts do come out”.

Pincher, Christopher [Publicly backing the PM]
Deputy chief whip, who backed Boris in the 2019 conservative leadership election.   Reported to be leading the ‘Save Boris’ campaign within Parliament.

Quince, Will [Actively backing the PM]
Junior education minister who backed Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 conservative leadership election.  Would lose his Colchester seat to Labour if a general election was held today based on current opinion polls.  Reported in his local  Essex County Standard press as having welcomed the PMs apology and given him his backing.

Raab, Dominic [Publicly backing the PM]
Deputy prime minister, who has been busy defending his boss on radio and TV in the last month.   Remains publicly supportive of the PM, saying, “I’m sure he will continue for many years to come”.  The same may not though, necessarily be true for Mr Raab.  Based on current polling over the last few months, he would comfortably lose his now marginal Esher seat to the Liberal Democrats in a general election.

Redwood, John [Actively backing the PM]
Veteran MP and one time stalking horse himself against John Major back in the 1990s.  The result in his Wokingham seat between the Conservatives and Lib Dems would be on a knife edge at current levels of polling. He recently called on the PM to get on the front foot with an agenda of low taxes and things that take you on the ‘ladder of opportunity’, saying in the Daily Express, “Those of us who support you, and that’s still most of us, want you to do well, but we want you to get on with this”.

Rees Mogg, Jacob [Publicly backing the PM]
New minister for Brexit opportunities, former leader of the House of Commons and Boris loyalist.   Recently commended that, ‘I think the Prime minister has got things right again and again’.

Richards, Nicola [Publicly backing the PM]
Young Red Wall MP, who has a majority of just 1,593 in West Bromwich East.  Has expressed her support for the PM and made it clear she was not amongst those MPs elected in 2019 that were considering a rebellion.  She told the local Express and Star that, “The PM helped win us seats like mine, he got Brexit done and has pulled us through the pandemic”.

Rosindell, Andrew [Publicly backing the PM]
Positioned on the right of the Conservative party, and backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Recently told Sky News that people should move on from discussing garden parties and cake, arguing, “Are we going to drag another prime minister out of office over something like that?”. He then added, “Lots of people break the law in small ways, sometimes unintentionally … He’s not robbed a bank – this is getting out of control.”

Sharma, Alok  [Publicly backing the PM]
Cabinet minister, who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Has said the PM was ‘right to apologise’.  Would comfortably lose his Reading West seat to Labour under current polling.

Scully, Paul [Publicly backing the PM]
Brexiter business minister who has defended Boris on the airwaves, often through some challenging interviews.   Result in his Sutton and Cheam seat would be on a knife edge with the Lib Dems at the current levels of polling.

Shapps, Grant [Publicly backing the PM]
Transport secretary who has been active defending the PM on the airwaves in the last month. The result in his Welwyn Hatfield constituency would be on an absolute knife edge at this level of polling.

Smith, Chloe [Publicly backing the PM]
Junior minister, who supported Johnson in the 2019 leadership election.  In a statement on her website she has said, “The prime minister continues to have my support”. Reaffirmed this support on Twitter after the police issued their fines. Would comfortably lose her Norwich North seat to Labour based on the current levels of Conservative polling.

Solloway, Amanda [Publicly backing the PM]
Government whip. Would comfortably lose her Derby North seat to Labour based on the current levels of Conservative polling. Has welcomed the PM’s apology, telling Derbyshire Live that, “Under our prime minister, our government has delivered on Brexit and a tremendous vaccine rollout and continues to focus on delivering the fastest growing economy in G7 despite the pandemic”. The day after the fixed penalty notice was issued, detailed on Twitter that the PM still had her support ‘getting on with the job’

Spencer, Mark [Publicly backing the PM]
Former government chief whip and now leader of the House of Commons.  Johnson ally.

Stafford, Alexander [Publicly backing the PM]
Brexiter and Red Wall MP elected in 2019. Would comfortably lose his Rother Valley seat to Labour based on the current levels of Conservative polling. Has publicly said that Keir Starmer should be investigated for drinking beer in a previous lockdown saying, “Those in glass houses should not throw beer bottles”. He has also tweeted in support of the PM saying, “On Monday the prime minister promised to radically reform how number 10 operates. It is clear that today he is keeping his word by having a wholesale clear-out, to create a better more dynamic operation”. Stafford also supported the PM in a the Commons debate on 21st April.

Stewart, Bob [Publicly backing the PM]
Former high profile army Colonel who has been the MP for Beckenham since 2010.  Backed Boris in the 2019 conservative leadership election.  Has said he ‘abhors’ the lockdown parities but told LBC that he will remain loyal to Boris adding if anyone ‘can turn a situation around, he can, and he’s proved that in the past’.

Stuart, Graham [Publicly backing the PM]
Left the government in 2021 after three years as a junior minister.  Supported Johnson in the 2019 conservative leadership election. Has been seen to retweet messages from other MPs that backed the PM.  On 31st Jan wrote, “Boris was elected to do a job. He must be allowed to get on with it.”

Sunak, Rishi [Publicly backing the PM]
Chancellor of the Exchequer, and before his own police fine, previously considered the person most likely to take over if Boris departs.  Publicly stated his total support for the prime minister. Has taken a ‘big hit’ recently in popularity, and his political fortunes now appear more closely tied to that of the prime minister.

Tolhurst, Kelly [Probable supporter]
Junior minister who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Resigned from the government for personal reasons in 2021, but was praised by the PM as a ‘brilliant minister’. On the day the PM received a fixed penalty notice, Ms Tolhurst tweeted that the PM ‘had made changes accordingly in No.10’ and that this was not the time to ‘change our leader’.

Tomlinson, Justin [Publicly backing the PM]
Deputy chairman of the Conservative party.  Backed Boris in the 2019 leadership contest.  Has praised the PM’s right calls on all the big judgements in the pandemic and has said, ‘We need to move on’.

Trevelyan, Anne-Marie [Publicly backing the PM]
Cabinet minister from Northumberland who has supported the PM on the airwaves.  Backed Boris in the 2019 leadership contest.  Johnson ally.

Truss, Liz [Publicly backing the PM]
Foreign secretary who has been promoted by Johnson, and has been publicly backing her boss on the airwaves.   Has tweeted that, “I stand behind the Prime minister, 100% as he takes our country forward”. Touted by some as a potential successor if Johnson resigns.

Vara, Shailesh [Publicly backing the PM]
Resigned from the Theresa May government over Brexit.  Backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election. After the Gray report, told his local Peterborough News, that, “There is no vacancy and both prime minister and I recognise that there are other issues that affect North-West Cambridgeshire and the rest of this country.”

Warman, Matt [Probable supporter]
Former Daily Telegraph journalist who backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Left the government in 2021. Following the Gray report, told Lincolnshire live, that, “I welcome the prime minister’s heartfelt, sincere apology and look forward to the government doing what it was elected to do and getting on with delivering on the people’s priorities.” On the day the PM received a fine for his birthday gathering, Warman appeared on Radio 4 to offer him his support.

Wallace, Ben [Publicly backing the PM]
Defence Secretary. Publicly backing the PM and has defended him on the airwaves.  Backed Johnson in the 2019 contest, and considered a long time ally of Boris. Now being seriously considered as potential replacement candidate should Boris fall.

Wheeler, Heather [Publicly backing the PM]
Supported Boris in the 2019 leadership contest. Reported in Derbyshire Live saying, “The Prime minister has my support” and that she abhorred this “whipped up campaign against him.”  Unsurprisingly was thus promoted in the latest February 2022 reshuffle to become parliamentary secretary in the Cabinet office.

Whittingdale, John [Publicly backing the PM]
Veteran MP and former cabinet minister who left a further stint in government in 2021.  Backed Boris in the 2019 leadership election.  Whilst saying that he understands the anger of his constituents, he is quoted in his local Braintree and Witham Times as saying he does have confidence in the PM, adding, “He has done many things that he set out to do very successfully and his Government deserves credit for delivering Brexit, rolling out the most successful vaccine programme in the world and supporting the UK economy to become the fastest growing in the G7”.  The Prime minister’s wife, Carrie, also previously worked for Mr Whittingdale for 15 months.

Williams, Craig [Publicly backing the PM]
Elected in 2019 for a relatively safe seat in rural Wales.  Issued a statement on partygate in which he said, “I welcome the full apology from the prime minister and more importantly his commitment to fixing the system by which Number 10 is managed”.  He added, “I share in the deep frustrations felt by many, and I recognise that much needs to be done by Number 10 to rebuild trust with the public. This is a first step in the right direction”. On the day Boris and Rishi Sunak received a police fine, he tweeted that he ‘would continue to fully support them both in the important work that they are doing’.

Young, Jacob [Actively backing the PM]
Red Wall MP elected for Redcar in 2019.  Would comfortably lose his seat to Labour in any election that reflected currently opinion poll levels. He remains a Boris loyalist though, having told Teeside Live that, “The prime minister has apologised unreservedly, has outlined how he will act, and I believe now is the time to move on”.

Zahawi, Nadhim [Actively backing the PM]
Education Secretary.  Johnson ally. Publicly backing the PM, and has defended him on the airwaves.

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MPs not eligible to vote

The following three MPs were elected as Conservatives in the 2019 General election, but have since lost the Conservative party whip at Westminster.  They are thus not eligible to vote in any leadership election:

Rob Roberts [Can’t vote]
Elected as the Conservative MP for Delyn in North Wales in 2019, but was suspended from the Commons for six weeks in 2021.  He was readmitted to the Conservative party in late 2021, but does not yet have the Conservative whip.  He sits as an Independent at Westminster.

Warburton, David [Can’t vote]
Ring tone entrepreneur who represents Somerton and Frome.  He was suspended from the parliamentary party following a series of newspaper revelations in March 2022. Without the conservative whip, he will not be able to vote in any leadership content. He supported Boris in the 2019 conservative leadership election, but should he have been able to vote, it was not clear that it would have supported the PM. He detailed on Twitter how his father died almost entirely alone during the first lockdown, how this was followed by just ‘3 of us’ being able to attend an outside burial that passed for his funeral, and how all this was a week before the first reported Downing Street party.  Continuing he said that ‘to understand the distress these revelations have caused is an understatement’, adding, “Like millions of others, I want to know the full extent of this troubling interpretation of the rules.  And what is to be done.”

Morris, Anne Marie [Can’t vote]
A good place to end this piece. First elected as the Conservative MP for Newton Abbot in Devon back in 2010.   She was a Brexiter who once submitted a letter of no confidence in Theresa May.  In early 2022, she was one of the first to have confirmed that she had done the same to Boris Johnson. However in the Commons, she has since voted for a Labour motion calling for a VAT cut on energy bills.   In January, this led to her being stripped of the Conservative whip.  As such, she cannot now vote in any leadership election, and her letter of no confidence is, well, void……

In addition to the above, Christian Wakeford MP has since crossed the floor of the House of Commons and joined the Labour Party. Following his court conviction, Imran Ahmad Khan has also resigned from Westminster creating a by-election in his Wakefield seat.

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How these numbers have been compiled

It has long been suggested that the parliamentary Conservative party is one the most secretive and hard to read electorates in the world.  Beyond their ranks, there is a considerable public yearning to try and understand what is the current position of the prime minister. Not least, because this electorate has shown in the past, that it needs no lessons in ruthlessness.

Until discussion around Johnson’s leadership either reaches a formal conclusion, or drops off the mainstream news agenda, we will make ongoing updates to this page.

We accept that any analysis of this nature is a problematic task.  This may explain why no such equivalent or detailed analysis appears publicly available. Even though our assessment is drawn primarily from the public comments and activities of the MPs concerned, we accept that it is impossible to rely on that as a fool proof guide.

There are likely to be ambitious MPs (particularly current ministers, and MPs from the 2019 intake) who are critical of the PM, but who, for reasons of career progression, are cautious about letting that be known.  At the same time, there may be others who are privately supportive of the prime minister, but who remain cautious not to say so publicly, potentially thereby incurring additional wrath right now from their constituents.

***Politics.co.uk note – Should any Conservative MP reading this, not be happy with our current assessment of their position, they are of course welcome to contact us.***

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